It was only a short while after Michael Beale had delivered his post-match press conference following Sunderland’s defeat to Hull City that a quick glance on social media displayed a glaring trending topic of ‘BealeOut.’
In the time since, there has been plenty of outpouring with yet further frustration and anger from supporters, with manager polls regarding Beale's position already being conducted online.
Beale has had just seven games in charge at the Stadium of Light but a sizeable proportion of the fanbase have already, it seems, made up their mind on Sunderland’s head coach after chants of ‘you’re getting sacked in the morning’ and ‘we want Beale out’ emanated from varying sections of the ground on Friday night.
Although it was not an avalanche, it was certainly significant enough and warranted the question being put to Beale himself.
“It's a month into the job. It shows the expectation on managers now,” said Beale. “Listen, I would say the fans just need to get behind supporting the players and the team on the park because they're a young group and I don't think the fans realise the strength of their support to that group of young players in there.
“I'll take what comes my way. I take the responsibility of being manager of the football club. It is what it is. You win games, people are happy. If you don't, you don't and they're not. Listen, tonight I felt the result was harsh on us.”
You can argue that any head coach would struggle to really see the fruits of their labour shining through after only a month in charge, particularly given the schedule Beale has had to contend with upon his arrival on Wearside. And yet, with a seven-game sample size, there is also evidence which displays a regression in Sunderland since Tony Mowbray’s departure early in December.
Sunderland registered an xG of less than 1 for a fifth consecutive game under Beale against Hull, having done so on just three other occasions this season prior to his arrival. In three of those five games, Sunderland have failed to register double digits when it comes to attempts at goal and although, at 13, their efforts against Hull were the highest across the last five games, only three of those were on target.
If you were to contrast that with Mowbray’s final five games against Swansea City, Birmingham City, Plymouth Argyle, Huddersfield Town and Millwall as a precursor; Sunderland’s lowest xG was 1.88 recorded in the 2-0 defeat at Plymouth, their highest was 2.58 in the 3-1 win over Birmingham. Mowbray’s side, as per Wyscout data, registered 23, 20, 22, 23 and 10 attempts at goal in those games respectively. It seems a far cry away in both data and, at times, on the eye, despite Mowbray’s own struggles towards the end of his tenure.
Beale was asked whether he is on something of a hiding to nothing in the aftermath of this defeat, because of the affiliation and the job Mowbray had done on Wearside. Beale was diplomatic in his response, for it was not his decision for the club to move on from Mowbray in the first place.
“It shows that Tony did a good job, the fans are passionate and liked him,” said Beale. “That's gone now and that's not coming back. He's in charge of a rival club in the Championship.
“He's got a lot of well wishes here at the football club. He's a man I know from coaching against him and on the circuit. He's a guy that I like, but football has moved on. That decision had nothing to do with me. That was a decision the club made and I've come in afterwards and I'm doing the best with the staff that we've got and this young group.
“With 18 games to go, we're in a much better position than we were this time last year. I see the positivity around the club. It's a club that a lot of people, a lot of players, would like to play in and a lot of people would like to coach. That tells you something.”
It was a difficult question for Beale, much like it is an ever-growing difficult situation for him to manage. But the perception of there being a lot of positivity around the club and the club being in a much better position is misguided. Sunderland are a point worse off than they were this time last season, where they had also scored four more goals and had a goal difference three better than the one they currently occupy. Sunderland lost 13 games last season on their way to a play-off finish. This defeat to Hull was already their 12th of this campaign.
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But more than just the figures in a league table and the data on a spreadsheet, Sunderland were fun to watch 12 months ago. At this stage last year, they snapped a seven-year streak against Middlesbrough with a 2-0 win at the Stadium of Light – a game where if you want to continue to take into account the data they recorded an xG of 3.5, their highest outright over the course of the last 12 months. They then went to Premier League Fulham in the fourth round of the FA Cup, backed by around 6,000 travelling supporters, and took the lead and were an offside decision away from winning the tie in what felt like a real coming of age performance. Again, for the statisticians, Sunderland had 16 attempts at goal with an xG of over 2 at Craven Cottage.
There was a renewed belief on Wearside. The football was engaging, it was fast, it was fluid. Sunderland, after four years in the doldrums of League One, were exciting again. You only have to look at some of the team goals scored against Reading and Huddersfield, as two examples, of the brand of football under Mowbray and why it felt like a club re-energised.
“I like this group of players, they’re adapting to this division and working really hard to be a decent team,” former head coach Mowbray said following that 2-0 win over neighbours Middlesbrough a year ago.
“There’s no huge expectation from me or the people in the suits at this club to get to the play-offs or get promotion. We just have to keep trying to produce a team that can compete in this division and, as we build it over the next year or two, the aspirations of the team will get higher.”
Those expectations and aspirations did get higher following the clubs near miss in last season’s play-offs under Mowbray. But where once over there may have been anger and frustration at that second leg defeat against Luton Town and missing out on a return to the Premier League, there was hope that Sunderland were back on the right track and that things, could indeed, only get better.
The summer recruitment, ultimately, did not match up with those aspirations and has left a lot to be desired in the here and now, with Sunderland still short in key areas at centre-forward and in central midfield. Those two factors, and the disparity between them, are what led to the cracks widening between Mowbray and the club’s hierarchy as the alignment and vision diverged between both parties.
Mowbray’s team were still trying to play in the same kind of swashbuckling, attacking brand of football as last season that had, even then, left them defensively open at times. But where last season they were able to balance that out with their attacking impetus, this season, with the continued struggles in the final third, things caught up with them.
Beale, as a result, has been left in an undesirable position. Although not exactly watertight, his pragmatism during the opening month of his tenure has led to Sunderland being a little more organised and disciplined out of possession. Taking the Coventry City game aside, where it is largely accepted interim boss Mike Dodds contributed the majority of that gameplan, Sunderland, in the league, have been undone by a stunning strike from Sam Clucas against Rotherham United, an unfortunate deflection which fell kindly for Kayden Jackson at Ipswich Town and this deflected Fabio Carvalho strike against Hull. Conor Chaplin’s winner for Ipswich from a set piece, you could argue, has been Sunderland’s most negligent defending under Beale.
But the counter-balance is no longer there. Beale’s more disciplined approach has seemingly negated what was already a toothless attack outside of Jack Clarke’s heroics this season and leaves Sunderland having to grind more than they ought to on a frequent basis.
“We’ve got to work harder on getting the ball into the net collectively, whether that’s from set pieces or from open play. If we can get that first goal, teams have then got to come out of that low-block and two or three goals may follow,” Sunderland’s captain, Luke O’Nien explained.
“We’re not far off being a very, very good team. I appreciate there might be frustration – you can hear that in the crowd, but we’re not far off being a very good team. I believe we’re very close. It’s fine margins.”
The window for those fine margins to be rectified is, however, closing. The anger from supporters so early in a reign is telling, with history suggesting it is rarely turned around. We have seen across the Football League recently how short a manager’s tenure can be with the likes of Troy Deeney at Forest Green Rovers and more relatable with Birmingham after their decision to replace John Eustace with Wayne Rooney.
Somewhat similar to Sunderland, Birmingham married themselves to a project and a model. Despite having Blues sixth in the Championship table at the time, a ‘misalignment with leadership’ led to Eustace’s exit – against the goodwill of the St Andrews faithful. Rooney was seen as a high profile name who could boost the club’s profile whilst bringing a brand of football more akin to what the owners sought. The former Manchester United and England striker lasted just 15 games and little over 80 days in the role before the club backtracked on the decision with, ironically, former Sunderland boss Mowbray brought in as his replacement.
Could we see similar from Sunderland? Despite the outpouring of frustration towards Beale, seven games and a month in charge would seem a little harsh were he to be relieved of his duties - especially given Sunderland's standing in the league table remains top-six competitive. But the alarm bells are certainly ringing. Ultimately, Sunderland’s decision-makers, Kristjaan Speakman and Kyril Louis-Dreyfus, will need to back their decision or admit to shortcomings.
Beale was handed a two-and-a-half year contract at the Stadium of Light which only emphasises the belief the club’s hierarchy have in what was described as an ‘obsession with progression’ when making the decision to change head coach last month.
"I think ultimately, the club is obsessed with progression and improving and we felt to meet that progression and that improvement, we need to make a change,” Speakman said of Beale replacing Mowbray.
"Do you make the change early and then maybe it’s a surprise and people are maybe concerned and it doesn’t really weigh up to the results because we weren’t in a bad position? Or do you make the decision late?
"Michael spoke about the opportunity to come into a team which is performing well. The team is in a good spot. He hasn’t got to pick the team up off a long series of poor, negative results or position in the table.
"And we just felt that that was the right time to make the change.”
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Beale, however, has unquestionably walked into an unenviable storm on Wearside. Whilst his appointment was met with plenty of disapproval, there’s no escaping he has been caught up in the midst of the club’s erroneous handling of the FA Cup third round tie with Newcastle United.
Sunderland’s performances on the pitch over the last two years have largely contributed to a feel-good factor around the Stadium of Light while questions have been raised, but not dealt with, about the off-field issues. But with the club admitting to a serious error in judgement over their handling of the Wear-Tyne derby, with the allocation of tickets, the removal of home fans from the north stand and the derogatory Black Cats Bar signage, for some that has become a real sliding doors moment for answers and improvement. And with performances on the pitch now stagnating, the demand for those answers and improvements will only grow.
“The stuff outside, the noise, you’re aware of because it’s there and I live in the city and I’m here every minute of every day working with the team,” Beale acknowledged. “I know what’s going on outside, I don’t think it’s helping the team on the park but that’s no excuses. We can do better, me as the coach first.
“It’s me that has to front up and it’s me that’s coaching the team. But all the stuff outside is nothing I’ve been in control of. All I can do is just take care of each day, make sure we’re training well, make sure we’re preparing for the games well and then push the boys when they’re out there playing.”
Beale should not be tarnished with the club dropping the ball over the Newcastle debacle, although a meek defeat to their rivals can be difficult for those in the Sunderland dugout to recover from – just ask Steve Bruce. But with the appointment of Beale intended to bring progression and advance Sunderland, then so far that has not yet materialised, nor does it look imminent.
For Beale, the only way to turn the tide will be to win games. The head coach has already found the same challenges as his predecessor, having also relayed his concerns over the inexperience of Sunderland’s squad – the youngest in the Championship.
To get results he may need support between now and the beginning of February with additions to the squad – something which, again, lies outside of his remit. Sporting director Speakman has enjoyed plenty of success when it comes to transfer business at the Stadium of Light when you consider the progression of the likes of Clarke, Patrick Roberts, Dennis Cirkin, Dan Ballard and formerly Ross Stewart, who was sold in the summer for a sizeable fee.
The club have, however, strayed a little away from that kind of profile of player over the last 12-months, having tested the European market more frequently. And while there remains time for some of those players, the likes of Adil Aouchiche, Timothee Pembele, Nazariy Rusyn and Luis Hemir, to name but a few, to develop, Beale and Sunderland will need a much bigger initial impact from any January recruit if they want to avoid the threat of an even greater drop-off in the second half of the season.
And yet Sunderland’s recruitment team are likely to remain encouraged by some of the data they are aligned to this season. For example, Sunderland are ranked third in the Championship for through passes, fourth for passes into the final third and first for progressive runs in terms of their construction of play. In an attacking sense, they have had the second most shots this season, the second most crosses and the second most corners – behind only Southampton in all three categories. They are ranked first when it comes to one-against-one dribbles, second for touches in the opposition penalty area and fourth when it comes to their overall xG, which stands at 47.08, as per Wyscout – 10 goals greater than their actual tally. Sunderland are third when it comes to overall possession this season behind only Southampton and Leicester City.
Those are all metrics that will encourage the hierarchy, and Beale, that things are not as out of sync as they feel at the Stadium of Light, and perhaps support those claims made by O'Nien that they aren't far away from being a good team in this division. Yet there can be no denying the squad needs a boost this month if they are to maintain a play-off push.
Experience has been identified as key, with the club having been linked with the likes of former midfielder Yann M’Vila and Bournemouth striker Kieffer Moore. Beale shut down any notion of a return for French midfielder M’Vila following the defeat to Hull while there is plenty of competition for Moore’s signature. Notts County’s Macauley Langstaff is another who has been mooted although We Are Sunderland understands the Stockton-born striker, who has scored over 60 goals over the last 18-months, is close to a move to League One rather than the Championship.
Sunderland held an interest in Fulham’s Jay Stansfield in the summer after a successful loan spell with Exeter City last season. The striker went on to join Birmingham instead where he has scored nine times across all competitions this season – eight more than Sunderland’s four summer forward additions combined. But that does demonstrate there are successes to be had with the club’s particular roadmap to recruitment – even more so if Sunderland are not going to be frontrunners when it comes to the finances on offer.
“There’s one or two areas we’d like to strengthen, but it’s a difficult window and we’re not the ones with the biggest pockets in that window in this division,” said Beale.
“We’ll see. We’re working really hard behind the scenes trying to bring players in, but we have to be a little bit patient. My focus as the coach of the team has to be with the players that are in house and not looking and waiting for people to come from the outside to solve it. One or two arrivals would be fantastic, if they don’t [arrive] I need to get more out of this group, for sure.”
An underwhelming climax to the transfer window will do little to help Beale’s endeavour in winning over supporters, nor will it help rebuild any of the trust broken between the club’s ownership group and fans for what has transpired off the field recently.
The last six weeks have been a real trigger point in the season and in the legacy of Louis-Dreyfus and Speakman. The next few days may well define how this storm plays out for both them and Beale.
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