The January transfer window is a notoriously difficult window to negotiate but have Sunderland let a potential asset slip through their hands following Hull City’s loan agreement for Liverpool winger Fabio Carvalho?
Sunderland’s need for attacking reinforcements is clear, with just one goal from their four striker additions in the summer combined as we cross over the midway point of the Championship season. But while Carvalho would not necessarily have occupied the central forward role at the Stadium of Light, could he have been the type of player Sunderland need?
The 21-year-old Portuguese winger already has plenty of encouraging experience on his CV, ranging from the Championship to the Champions League. Carvalho won the Championship title with Fulham in 2022 having been a regular at Craven Cottage under Marco Silva in what was a breakout season that resulted in Premier League interest and a move to Liverpool.
Having failed to bring in the winger in the January transfer window in 2022, Jurgen Klopp was eventually able to negotiate a deal for Carvalho who completed the switch to Anfield following Fulham’s promotion back to the top flight later that year. He made his debut for the Reds in their Community Shield success over Manchester City before scoring his first goal for the club in the 9-0 win over Bournemouth and then added to that with a dramatic late winner against Newcastle United just days after.
Given the attacking talent Klopp has at his disposal, however, it was always likely to be a difficult process for Carvalho to truly establish himself as a first-team regular on Merseyside with the likes of Mohamed Salah joined by the high-profile signings of Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez. Carvalho still went on to make 21 appearances last season including a late cameo in the Champions League defeat to Real Madrid in the Bernabeu in March.
Liverpool made the decision to loan out Carvalho in the summer in order to aid his development, with Bundesliga side RB Leipzig the eventual destination. Germany’s top division has established itself as a successful landing spot for young talent to evolve their game based on the success of the likes of Jadon Sancho and Jude Bellingham in their time with Borussia Dortmund – Harry Kane’s move to Bayern Munich in the summer, albeit not at a developmental phase in his career, still a show of faith in moving across Europe for players in the Premier League.
The Reds have now recalled Carvalho from that loan spell, with the Portuguese completing a six-month loan deal to Hull in the Championship instead. From the outside it looks like a potentially shrewd move from City boss Liam Rosenior who admitted he ‘couldn’t be happier’ to get the deal over the line.
“Everyone is aware of Fábio’s ability, his qualities as a young player,” said Rosenior. “We’re building a reputation, not just in England but in Europe, for the way we develop players. Our style of play and ambition are really important factors in attracting players to the club.
“Fábio is excited to be coming here and I’m delighted to be working with him to the end of the season. Technically, he’s outstanding. He can assist, score and run in behind. He’s brave, quick, very balanced and takes the ball.
“The reason he’s at Liverpool is because he’s got enormous potential and I can’t thank them enough for trusting us; Liverpool have seen the work we’ve done with Tyler Morton.
“Fábio’s got the ability to make a real impact on our season and get us to where we want to be.”
But just what makes this move, potentially, a significant one and should Sunderland have been interested?
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To gain a greater understanding we should probably head back to the 2021-22 campaign when Carvalho helped fire Fulham back to the Premier League and really announced himself within English football having progressed through the ranks in West London.
Carvalho made 18 goal contributions to Silva’s side that season; 11 goals and seven assists. To put that into context, Manchester United’s Amad Diallo recorded the same number for Sunderland when on loan last season with 14 goals and four assists, and Sunderland would certainly love to bring the Ivory Coast star back to Wearside based on those numbers.
Carvalho recorded the fifth most touches in the penalty area in the Championship that season with Fulham with 186 whilst averaging an 85 per cent pass completion rate throughout the course of the campaign. The winger made 22 key passes – similar to that of Hull’s Kane Lewis-Potter who was another player to secure a big-money move to the Premier League following that season.
Carvalho’s form in his final season at Craven Cottage earned him a place in the PFA Championship team of the year as well as seeing him shortlisted for the 2022 European Golden Boy award. That alone would be enough to perk interest.
A loan move to RB Leipzig, however, has not necessarily worked out as well as Liverpool would have liked for Carvalho, who has made 15 appearances for the side sitting fourth in the Bundesliga at their mid-season break. Carvalho marked his debut in Germany by lifting the DFL Super Cup in a convincing 3-0 win over Bayern Munich, but came away from his loan spell without a single goal or assist to his name.
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There are mitigating circumstances behind that, though. Unlike at Fulham, Carvalho has faced stronger competition for a starting spot with the likes of Xavi Simmons, Christoph Baumgartner and Emil Fosberg, prior to his move to MLS, all competing for wide berths in Marco Rose’s system. Of those 15 appearances, only nine have come in the Bundesliga and just one as a starter, back in September’s win over Borussia Monchengladbach. Carvalho enjoyed his only full 90 minutes with the club in their final Champions League group game in December, a win against Young Boys.
Carvalho was rotated across the three attacking positions in behind the striker as Rose adapted his system for different challenges. Although competent on the right side of the forward line, Carvalho’s more natural position is coming in off the left – similar to Jack Clarke.
Nevertheless, Carvalho leaves Leipzig fourth in the Bundesliga for average crosses per 90 minutes and 11th in offensive duels, with an average of 9.52 per 90 minutes. Carvalho was sixth when it comes to deep completed crosses.
Carvalho is ranked 26th at the halfway stage of the German season when it comes to progressive runs, with 1.73 on average per 90 mins – some way behind Clarke’s 8.25 per 90 minutes for Sunderland this season. The winger is also some way short of Clarke’s average of 11.67 dribbles per 90 minutes with 3.46, and yet Carvalho does complete a higher percentage of those at 75 per cent than Clarke’s 63.3 per cent.
Given Sunderland’s position with Clarke in January, however, with several clubs interested in prying the winger away from the Stadium of Light, Carvalho might have been a strong candidate to potentially replace or compete with the 23-year-old over the remainder of the season. Sunderland are also set to be without Patrick Roberts for a number of weeks after he picked up a calf injury over the Christmas period and Carvalho has already featured on the right wing a number of times this season.
While Sunderland have favoured inverted wingers with the likes of Roberts, Clarke and Amad since their return to the Championship, Carvalho is certainly of a similar ilk as those three when it comes to the final third – particularly if we focus on his time with Fulham.
On completing his move to Liverpool in 2022, Carvalho said: “Marco Silva, the way he plays football, is more like attacking football and getting goals, which is similar to how Liverpool play, which is to score goals and dominate games.” Although not on a similar level to Liverpool, Sunderland have certainly favoured a more attack-minded approach over the course of the last 18-months which might have suited Carvalho – Rosenior, who has implemented a similar style with Hull, also suggested the brand of football as a key factor in sealing Carvalho’s signature.
There will be other players out there on Sunderland’s radar – maybe they will continue to seek a return for Amad in January – but Carvalho’s move to Hull does enhance a play-off rival in what is becoming an ever tighter race to secure a top-six spot.
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