What data suggests is going wrong with Sunderland's attack

But over the course of the last decade xG, or expected goals as we now know it, has become a prominent part of the statistical analysis involved with football, and not just at the top level. Clubs up and down the country, far and wide across Europe, now have access to vast amounts of data with regards to teams and players as they endeavour to improve, whether that be in a style of play or by recruitment.

Wyscout, Statsbomb and Opta are just some of the now renowned tools that clubs, coaches and even players use to gain a greater understanding of the game. Long gone, it seems, is the simplicity of the eye test on a Saturday afternoon as to whether a team, or an individual, played well or not.

Take Sunderland this season, for example. They have been at both ends of the spectrum when it comes to the conceptions of their performances. The league table, for the most part, has held Sunderland at a similar, or improved level, in terms of their points tally compared to last season and yet performances have felt more muddled and strained. Sunderland, to the eye, have not been as free-flowing as we saw under Tony Mowbray last season – Mowbray himself struggling to rekindle those levels before his departure this season.

Yet a look at some of the in-game metrics would not cause much concern, with Sunderland statistically out-performing their opponents more often than not when it comes to xG, shots, passes, possession, crosses, progressive runs and offensive duels. You would think, in that case, Sunderland would be faring much better than they are this season and would not have felt the need to change head coach, with Michael Beale appointed at the midway point of the season.

Expected goals is one of the first advanced metrics to become widely known amongst general football fans which is why it is now considered a useful tool and guide for both supporters and reporters – if the clubs themselves are using it, why shouldn’t the rest of us?

xG measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be converted by using information on similar shots in the past. As per Opta Analyst: “Suppose the chance from inside the box is assigned an xG of 0.1. This means that a player would, on average, be expected to score one goal from every ten shots in this situation, or 10% of the time.

“The terminology may be new, but these phrases have been used by football fans and commentators for years before xG was introduced – “he scores that nine times out of ten” or “he should’ve had a hat-trick today.

“While watching a game, we can intuitively tell which chances are more or less likely to be scored. How close was the shooter to goal? Were they shooting from a good angle? Was it a one-on-one? Was it a header? With a model, we can calculate the likelihood of a goal being scored

“The model uses several variables from before, and up to, the exact moment the shot was taken. It evaluates how over 20 variables [distance to the goal, angle to the goal, goalkeeper’s positioning, shot type and the pattern of play leading up to the chance] affect the likelihood of a goal being scored.”

So, where do Sunderland fit into all of this?

Supporters are frustrated with a number of things at the Stadium of Light currently, including the appointment of Beale after the former Rangers boss was the subject of targeted anger following the 1-0 defeat to Hull City with chants from him to leave his post.

And, since Beale’s appointment, Sunderland’s xG tracking, among some of the other outlaying stats, appears to have regressed, which is another reason for concern. Beale has found the same problems Mowbray found throughout his tenure on Wearside with the club’s striker situation; Mowbray forced to adapt without Ross Stewart last season after the Scotsman made just 15 appearances for the club due to injury before this season having to balance the integration of inexperienced players into a squad targeting promotion from the Championship.

Beale has picked up on that and is finding similar difficulties – Nazariy Rusyn’s goal against Preston North End the only one from one of the club’s four summer recruits up front, despite 37 appearances combined between them - albeit just 16 as starters.

There is a reasonable suggestion to be made that Mowbray was flirting with the ceiling at the Stadium of Light with the current squad and structure in terms of the club’s vision for developing younger players. The decision from the hierarchy to appoint Beale is an attempt to ensure that ceiling is glass, and can be broken through, as opposed to something much sterner.

"We certainly want to convert some of our dominance into more goals,” sporting director Kristjaan Speakman said at Beale’s unveiling.

“I think if you look at the team Michael took at Rangers, talking about a high possession team and breaking teams apart, there are a lot of similarities in terms of more recent opponents that Michael has played against. From a coaching standpoint, he can come and sprinkle some ideas on how we can be more effective there.

“Certainly, from a transfer window perspective, the club has always invested in the short, medium and long-term in improving the quality and we've been on with that piece of work since the transfer window closed and that will run alongside everything."

Beale himself admitted there was little to alter from Mowbray’s blueprint with this squad of players – the emphasis being to try and either reignite the fluidity of last season or progress it further.

“I've always enjoyed watching Tony's teams play,” said Beale. “They play with width and lots of freedom. That's what our fans at Sunderland have enjoyed. We're going to continue that and hopefully add one or two extra bits on top in terms of my personality being different. 

"I really like the freedom the team has got already. That's how I see football as well, a lot of interchanging in the final third. We have to be just as good out of possession in this league as we are in it. We've got lots of interesting types of players, the style of football won’t change, there'll just be one or two elements added into it.

“There are a lot of players here that make me want to get out of bed in the morning and come to work. When you look at a squad of players, you've got to be excited about coming into the building, not only just for the club, of course coming to work for a fantastic club there's that excitement, but within that squad, who is exciting you in the squad? There's a number of players here that are pleasing on the eye, we want to continue that.

“But it's important we win inside both boxes. I think there's a statistic that we have the highest xG in the league, or we did before the Bristol game. That's a good sign that there's been good coaching and it's important we continue that and win inside the boxes, not between them.

“I don't think there'll be any radical changes that anyone will be able to see, it's just me adding one or two changes to a team that's already in a good place."

As yet, however, things have yet to materialise for Beale during his opening month with the club. But that is a rhetoric Sunderland have been troubled with for the majority of this season.

The biggest ‘go-to’ in terms of trying to find a solution has to be in the final third. Sunderland had six players score five or more goals last season, two of which in Stewart and Amad Diallo hit double figures while Jack Clarke contributed nine. As we head into the final third of this season, Clarke is the only player to contribute more than five goals.

In terms of outright goal contributions, Sunderland had five players reach double figures last season in Clarke (20), Amad (16), Stewart (13), Patrick Roberts (12) and Alex Pritchard (10), as per Fbref. Clarke, currently, has 15 this season with Dan Neil next in line with seven goal contributions.

So what has changed for Sunderland over the course of the last 12 months? We Are Sunderland takes a deeper dive into the attacking changes on Wearside:

Ross Stewart v Middlesbrough (January, 2023)

Given the significance of Stewart, a pretty good starting point for Sunderland’s attacking dilemma will often draw you back to when the Scotsman was in the starting line-up. The last time that happened in the league for Sunderland came just over a year ago when scoring in a 2-0 win over Middlesbrough at the Stadium of Light. At that point, things were looking up for Sunderland.

Analysing Stewart’s performance in isolation in that Wear-Tees derby demonstrates why Sunderland have struggled to replicate that kind of authority in the final third on a regular basis.

Before we even consider some of the data regarding Stewart’s impact we’ll go to the more traditional eye-test referenced earlier. Sunderland’s first big moment in the game came when Amad capitalised on a mistake from goalkeeper Zack Steffen before flashing wide of Steffen’s left-hand post – a chance which, as per Wyscout, registered at 0.28 in terms of xG which means the Ivorian would likely have scored for Sunderland in that moment one in every four attempts.

Amad Diallo's early opportunity for Sunderland against Middlesbrough from Zack Steffen's mistake (1) registered at 0.28xG (Image: Wyscout)

But the start of that move, as you can see in the picture below, shows full-back Aji Alese with a much more direct approach than we tend to see from Sunderland currently when put under pressure by Marcus Forss. Alese comes inside on his weaker right foot and sends the ball forward towards the final third, knowing Stewart offers something as a target man.

Neil is also interesting in this as he immediately spins with the thought of attacking when Alese sends the ball forward, anticipating Stewart winning the initial contact. Neil and Amad, as pictured, become the second and third-man runners off Stewart as he wins the ball – something you could argue we haven’t seen enough of this season.

Ross Stewart provided Sunderland a direct out-ball with Aji Alese (above) able to go long against Middlesbrough. Stewart was able to win the first contact (below) as both Dan Neil and Amad Diallo were able to run in behind the striker (Image: Wyscout)

Neil becomes the most advanced Sunderland player which forces the turnover in possession by Steffen where Amad should punish Middlesbrough by opening the scoring. But Stewart’s involvement in allowing Sunderland to go more direct was the catalyst.

Likewise was the synergy Amad had with Sunderland’s attackers; Clarke, Roberts and Stewart. Whenever Stewart dropped deeper to link up, as shown below for Edouard Michut, Amad knew to then go on and be the advanced runner.

Dan Neil and Amad Diallo continued the high press forcing Zack Steffen into a mistake and a big chance for Diallo to open the scoring (above). Sunderland had a nice synergy between them whenever Ross Stewart dropped deep there was a runner in behind (below) (Image: Wyscout)

That front four of Roberts, Amad, Clarke and Stewart had the potential to be hugely effective in the second half of the season four Mowbray who, unfortunately, was limited to starting the quartet just four times together.

But with Clarke and Roberts on the wings as we still see now, and Amad roaming behind Stewart, there was an electric synergy between all four and their ability to stretch teams was clear. Stewart, in the image below, shows classic centre-forward play in hanging on the shoulder of Dael Fry whilst Amad and Roberts attack, with Clarke situated far left. Stewart never leaves that space, unlike we have seen from the likes of Joe Gelhardt and Rusyn in times since this fixture.

As Amad and Roberts work an opening, Stewart has created space in the penalty area and eventually converts the rebound from Roberts’ effort, only to be flagged offside. It was a warning for Middlesbrough and was Sunderland at their fluid best last season.

Sunderland were able to break at a high intensity as Ross Stewart shows good striker initiative to hang on the shoulder of Dael Fry (above). Stewart held that position and was only denied a goal by the offside flag (below) (Image: Wyscout)

Sunderland's front four of Patrick Roberts, Amad Diallo, Ross Stewart and Jack Clarke were able to stretch Middlesbrough. Stewart again showing his initiative when running across Dael Fry to the front post (Image: Wyscout)

Another example of Stewart’s importance in this game came on the stroke of half-time. When Anthony Patterson has possession of the ball it is rather unusual to see so few options for a short pass to one of his centre-backs, given what we are accustomed to seeing this season from Sunderland – only Dan Ballard is a viable option here, really.

Patterson, however, has no qualms of going long to Stewart and it is his mere presence up against Fry which forces an error and an attempt at goal.

Anthony Patterson does not have many short options from his centre-backs but is allowed to go direct to Ross Stewart (above). Stewart's presence forces Dael Fry into a mistake a creates an opportunity (Image: Wyscout)

Middlesbrough did not deal with those warnings and Sunderland knew, with Stewart, they had a direct outlet. Roberts, this time, sent a stunning cushioned volley over the defence for Stewart to then find himself in a foot race with Fry where the striker would win a penalty which saw Fry dismissed. For all of Sunderland’s effective interplay, the ability to go direct to Stewart was influential in this game against Middlesbrough.

Ross Stewart continued to provide an out-ball, something which Patrick Roberts used with an excellent pass over the top which led to the penalty and red card for Dael Fry and Sunderland's opening goal (above). Albeit against 10 men, Sunderland continued to get numbers in the opposition box (below) (Image: Wyscout)

 Joe Gelhardt: The replacement

Unfortunately for Mowbray, and Sunderland, that exciting quartet was disrupted only a week later through Stewart’s injury. For all Stewart passed the eye test in attacking scenarios, the Scotsman’s strike against Middlesbrough was his 11th goal in just 14 appearances last season which shows how valuable he was.

A ruptured achilles in the club’s 1-1 draw with Fulham in the FA Cup would prove to be the final appearance for Stewart in the red and white of Sunderland before a summer switch to Southampton. In his place came Leeds United’s Gelhardt who arrived on loan for the second half of last season.

Speakman’s intentions in bringing in Gelhardt were to compensate for the loss of Ellis Simms who had earlier returned to Everton from his loan spell on Wearside and to tandem with Stewart in attack. Unfortunately, the onus fell on Gelhardt to lead the line. At 5’10”, Gelhardt did not necessarily provide the same kind of presence as that of the 6’2” Stewart. But his game, too, was different.

Gelhardt was more of a terrier in terms of winning or receiving the ball in the No.10 position and moving Sunderland forward – his most effective display demonstrating this, arguably, coming in the 2-1 win over West Bromwich Albion at the Hawthorns.

For the purposes of this, however, we are focusing on home fixtures, given the tendency to mix things up tactically a little bit more away from home against the onus being on Sunderland at the Stadium of Light.

The then 20-year-old arrived from Elland Road with a positive reputation but was thrown into a difficult situation having started just six times for Leeds prior to his move to the North East. In the example below, in Sunderland’s 4-4 draw with Hull back in April, you can already see a slight change in approach from Mowbray’s side – who are deeper given Gelhardt’s position inside his own half.

As Michut, in this example, wins the ball back, Gelhardt is inside the centre circle of his own half. The attack, therefore, is only able to continue because of Clarke’s driving run down the left at which point Gelhardt does show some clever striker initiative when, as we saw with Stewart on Fry, peeling onto the shoulder of the defender.

Clarke, you could argue, takes the more difficult option in reversing the pass to Amad, but Gelhardt continues to leave himself space from Hull’s defence, in particular Jacob Greaves, as the ball eventually falls his way where he finishes well for just a second goal in 12 appearances at that point.

Joe Gelhardt became a replacement for Ross Stewart in the second half of last season but it led to Sunderland starting from a much deeper position (above). In this example against Hull, Gelhardt did similar to Stewart in a counter-attack in peeling onto the shoulder of the defender (below) (Image: Wyscout)

Joe Gelhardt remained in a good position despite Jack Clarke opting to pass to Amad Diallo (above). Gelhardt's striker instinct meant he was in the perfect position to pounce ahead of Jacob Greaves and score (below) (Image: Wyscout)

Gelhardt then kind of shows what he is about for Amad’s goal as Sunderland quickly take the lead after falling behind. The striker tussles with Adama Traore almost immediately from the kick-off which creates space for Amad, Clarke and Roberts to drive on in behind – similar to what we saw when linking with Stewart.

Yet that tendency to drop deeper and search for the ball is also what left Sunderland a little vulnerable with as many as four players ahead of the striker. Gelhardt, in the end, loses a tussle with Jean Michael Seri as Hull level the scores at 2-2.

Joe Gelhardt demonstrates his key strength when forcing Adama Traore into a mistake which leads to Amad Diallo's goal (above). Gelhardt's tendency to drop deeper than Ross Stewart meant Sunderland often started from a deeper position. His search for the ball in this example with Jean Michael Seri leads to a turnover in possession and Hull's equalising goal (below) (Image: Wyscout)

Although Sunderland scored four in this particular game, the two images below again show how they had fallen a little out of sync in attack with Gelhardt dropping deeper. Where against Middlesbrough we saw the likes of Amad occupying the space in behind Stewart when he dropped deeper, here it wasn’t as frequent, whilst the option of a more direct ball from the back was not a realistic option with Gelhardt.

In this example (above) Joe Gelhardt has three players ahead of him despite being Sunderland's striker. It meant that when Sunderland did attack in good areas (below) there was often too much space left in behind where a runner should perhaps be (Image: Wyscout)

When Sunderland did advance into key areas through the likes of Clarke, as we have seen so often this season, there weren’t as many numbers committing to the box, with the named striker too far behind play and away from being ‘in between the posts.’

Gelhardt was substituted in the second half for Pritchard who played an instrumental role in Sunderland’s fourth goal – a blistering counter-attack which, again, was Mowbray’s side at their fluent best. But you can also notice the lack of presence of a striker in this attack with the gaping void being left – the kind of space you would likely have found Stewart.

Here (above) we see Jack Clarke driving into a key area but Joe Gelhardt is too far behind the pace to be a threat in the penalty area. Amad Diallo is the only Sunderland player in the box but he is also too wide to be a threat. Sunderland's fourth goal (below) came via a superb counter-attack but the lack of No.9 again is evident with the huge void in that area of the field (Image: Wyscout)

Gelhardt’s time with Sunderland was certainly not a failure. There were signs of promise and potential, and in a different set-up behind Stewart, we may have seen the best of him. But Gelhardt’s attributes have been a similar pattern from what we have seen this season as Sunderland’s fluidity in attack has tailed off slightly.

Eliezer Mayenda's chance

Eliezer Mayenda was one of four summer recruits brought in hoping to fill the void left by Stewart, alongside Chelsea’s Mason Burstow, Benfica’s Luis Hemir and Rusyn.

Although Sunderland were still competing in and around the top six through the opening months of the season, there was a concern things were meandering under Mowbray – particularly following this defeat to Huddersfield Town at the Stadium of Light.

It is here where the conversation surrounding Sunderland’s xG and attacking metrics really started to come into the equation. In what turned out to be Mowbray’s final home game in charge, Sunderland recorded their joint-highest number of attempts at goal this season with 23, as well as their joint-highest number on target at nine, with an xG of over 2. They lost the game 2-1.

Mowbray started with 18-year-old Mayenda in attack, his only start this season, but the profligacy in front of goal remained.

There are a number of factors at play here; you can turn to Mayenda’s experience, or lack thereof, or the absence of Amad as part of Sunderland’s attack this season. But there wasn’t as much energy to Sunderland’s play. In the image below you can see Mayenda is out of contention from an Adil Aouchiche cross following a short corner routine. Regardless of experience, a striker will unlikely score if they aren’t in the areas to score.

Mayenda did exhibit some characteristics similar to Stewart in that he gave an out-ball to the defence. Here we can see from a Ballard long ball how the Spaniard is causing trouble for the defender, much like Stewart did with Fry. Aouchiche, however, is not as alert to the situation as Amad, for example, which leaves the 18-year-old a little too isolated, albeit he does well to win a free-kick.

Eliezer Mayenda was handed a first start against Huddersfield but the 18-year-old was not always in the right areas to threaten (above). Mayenda did bring a similar out-ball as Ross Stewart in allowing Sunderland to go direct on occasion (below) (Image: Wyscout)

Rarely have we seen that long-ball outlet this season; Jobe Bellingham’s run in behind recently against Ipswich Town where he created an opening for Clarke one of the few occasions we’ve seen Sunderland being able to get teams turned around quickly.

A lot of that is to do with the tactical set-up of the opposition against Sunderland. It’s here where you can argue Sunderland deserve credit as teams are clearly respecting them when they set up in a low block in fear of being swept aside, based on the evidence we saw from the club’s return to the Championship last season.

In the example below, you can see there is a good, close proximity between Sunderland’s front four of Mayenda, Clarke, Jobe and Roberts. The problem is how congested Huddersfield have made it to work any openings. What Mayenda does well here is that he comes deeper in search of the ball at the right moment to allow another runner in behind – in this case Jobe. Just that little move towards the ball draws the centre-back out to allow space for Jobe to exploit courtesy of an excellent through ball from Luke O’Nien where the young midfielder should score to give Sunderland the lead.

Huddersfield's low block made it difficult for Eliezer Mayenda at times (above) but the young striker showed some clever initiative in drawing a defender out to allow Luke O'Nien to create a big opportunity for Jobe (below) (Image: Wyscout)

When those chances go begging and you lose a game you begin to wonder where things are going wrong. Sunderland, at that point under Mowbray, weren’t doing a lot wrong statistically in terms of their chance creation, but their ability to cut through teams at will had stagnated which ultimately, coupled with a difference in opinion regards to the direction of the squad and recruitment, led to Mowbray’s departure in December.

Over to Rusyn

We’re heading towards two months since Mowbray’s exit and it’s been a fairly tumultuous time on Wearside. Sunderland have lost as many of their 10 games as they did in Mowbray’s final 10, winning just one more. They’ve scored just eight goals in those 10 games to 11 under Mowbray but have conceded two fewer.

What does that tell us? Well, Sunderland have been slightly better defensively than they were towards the end of Mowbray’s tenure, they’ve not been as potent in front of goal when it was largely considered they were struggling anyway, yet they’re still middling with results in a similar way.

Beale has been in charge of seven of those 10 games with the defeat against Hull at the Stadium of Light proving to be a real tipping point for supporters with their frustration.

Much of that was targeted at Beale, perhaps for the manner of that loss after a fifth consecutive game of registering an xG lower than 1, although it is fair to say he has been caught up in the frustration aimed at the club’s hierarchy as well.

Beale’s approach has followed a similar pattern to that of Mowbray’s, albeit a little more conservative, whereby Sunderland are hitting a buffer in the final third and in need of a spark, most usually from Clarke.

Here against Hull we can see the desire to play through the thirds when O’Nien is in possession. Where a target-man-type of centre-forward would allow O’Nien an alternative to play over the first line of press, here they have to play through.

Nazariy Rusyn started against Hull City for Michael Beale but that meant Sunderland were more reliant on playing through the lines (Image: Wyscout)

To his credit, O’Nien threads an excellent pass into the path of Pritchard who can turn and drive at the defence. Rusyn, the forward in this scenario, does what strikers should in running towards goal in the channel, creating a lane for Pritchard to pass into. Although Clarke, Neil and Jenson Seelt are in attack as well, Rusyn is the ball for Pritchard in this situation.

Nazariy Rusyn made a number of decent centre-forward runs for Sunderland including in this situation (Image: Wyscout)

Rusyn’s run is not picked out by Pritchard early enough which negates things and sees the Ukrainian have to divert back in-field, almost getting in Pritchard’s way. There isn’t enough time for Rusyn to find an alley down the side of the opposite centre-back, which means Pritchard is forced into going for goal himself with the options of Clarke and Seelt too challenging.

Alex Pritchard fails to pick out Nazariy Rusyn's run in time which forces the striker to change his route and become irrelevant to the attack. Is this a symptom of Sunderland playing so often without a centre-forward? (Image: Wyscout)

Again, it just shows the lack of authority in the final third by either the striker and his run or the decision-maker on the ball. Sunderland have played for that long without Stewart, who you would class as the all-round package up front, that maybe they are a little naïve to runs being made in behind from a more naturally-deemed striker like Rusyn as opposed to when an advanced midfielder has started as the central striker.

Conversely, Beale’s focus on Sunderland being efficient out of possession may also be having an impact. Where Beale spoke about the wide fluidity of Sunderland when joining the club, his narrow structure out of possession can make it difficult to stretch teams quickly enough – even more so in the absence of Roberts.

Against Hull, Pritchard and Jobe fluctuated in the wide right position but were often seen drifting inside which made things congested. When Hull were in possession, Sunderland were compact and rigid. We saw similar against Newcastle United to an extreme level where Beale had his side camped on the edge of their own 18-yard-box. Whilst the defence-attack balance sometimes tilted a little too much in the way of attack under Mowbray, under Beale it may be shifting too much the other way.

Michael Beale has focused on Sunderland's shape out of possession which maybe hinders their fluidity in attack at time (Image: Wyscout)We saw a similar defensive shape, albeit with a lower line of engagement, against Newcastle United (Image: Wyscout)When Sunderland were able to create potential openings by getting the ball to their playmaker Clarke, there was little to no room to work in. Clarke had scored a superb winner against Hull on Boxing Day in the reverse fixture and you can see below the amount of orange shirts surrounding him, alert to his threat.

Sunderland’s attacking struggles have been so well documented this season that opposition teams can exert most of their energy into stopping Clarke, with 13 goals and two assists to his name, to blunt their attack.

Despite the number of bodies he has to beat, Clarke will, on occasion still create a crossing angle which means it is imperative the selected striker is on the same wavelength. Clarke and Rusyn combined to score an excellent goal in the win over Preston and the same almost happened here against Hull with Rusyn’s run to the front post. Of the four strikers tasked with leading the line this season, Rusyn appears the most streetwise with that kind of movement.

Yet there remain occasions where those runs aren’t picked out – as seen here when Pierre Ekwah picks up the ball. As Ekwah collects and looks to shift onto his left foot, Rusyn is already making the dart across his man but the ball does not come for a safer option into Trai Hume.

Jack Clarke remains Sunderland's biggest threat to opposition teams and is often heavily outnumbered (above). Nazariy Rusyn continues to make intelligent runs in attack but his team-mates are not yet on the same wavelength (below) (Image: Wyscout)

Rusyn continued to make intelligent runs, the kind you can argue Sunderland have missed, and was again unfortunate not to convert from Clarke’s low cross. Beyond that, Sunderland’s attacking threat continued to be a little disjointed. The picture below shows Hume in the penalty area before he is then the one most advanced on the left with Sunderland trailing.

Hemir was brought on for Rusyn in a change which angered supporters but the Portuguese’s first involvement was an attempt at goal, albeit speculative.

Nazariy Rusyn was replaced by Luis Hemir but Sunderland's attack remained unbalanced as they drew a third blank under Michael Beale in seven games with their xG totals dropping (Image: Wyscout)

It continues to leave Sunderland in a conundrum. There are likely elements to all four strikers signed in the summer you could piece together to make one that closer resembles what Stewart brought to this Sunderland side. But, in addition to the striker situation, Sunderland’s style of play is evidently plateauing as per the data in terms of xG and several other attacking outliers.

What else does the data suggest?

As we started, these scenarios are based on eye-tests and general attacking play. But the data supports Sunderland’s struggles, too.

Take Sunderland’s positional attacks across the evidence of these four particular fixtures, for example. Against Middlesbrough under Mowbray, Sunderland had 30 positional attacks with the biggest threat in terms of xG coming through the centre of the field with Stewart in attack. Where the emphasis now heavily relies on Clarke’s shoulders, here just six of those attacks came down his side of the field.

With Gelhardt leading the line against Hull back in April, Sunderland had 33 positional attacks with 16 of those coming down the left side of the field. It was during this period without Stewart where Clarke really started to come to the fore and demonstrate his influence with seven of his 11 goals coming in the second half of the season. Just eight of Sunderland’s positional attacks came through the middle via Gelhardt, with nine from the right, which shows how things shifted under Mowbray in Stewart’s absence.

As referenced earlier, Mayenda gave Sunderland a bit more of an out-ball over the top where necessary, which correlates with the attacking positions against Huddersfield in what was the most balanced performance of the four fixtures analysed. Sunderland recorded 51 positional attacks against the Terriers, split with 19 from the left, 17 through the middle and 15 on the right – the highest xG coming from the middle, as well. That would suggest Sunderland were more comfortable in playing into and through Mayenda than they have been at other times this season with other strikers.

Rusyn’s involvement in the recent defeat to Hull saw just six attacks through his third of the field with 24 of the 37 recorded attacks coming down the left-side of the field and Clarke, again highlighting his impact.

Sunderland's positional attacks show they were able to attack through the centre of the field more often with Ross Stewart leading the line (top left) as opposed to favouring the left-hand-side with Jack Clarke thereafter (Image: Wyscout)

Those positional attacks can be analysed further if we specifically focus on the four strikers who started each individual game and their action maps.

Against Middlesbrough, Stewart was involved in 66 total actions and had six attempts at goal, scoring once. Gelhardt had 50 total actions, four attempts at goal and scored one goal against Hull. Mayenda, against Huddersfield, had 30 total actions with just one attempt at goal whereas Rusyn had just 23 total actions and also one attempt at goal against Hull. Interestingly, the number of actions to take place inside the opposition penalty area decreases from each striker following Stewart’s six successful actions (highlighted in blue) to Rusyn’s zero.

What’s clear is that Stewart was able to get involved in the game in key areas several times, Gelhardt, too, to a certain extent but you can also see how he likes to drift back into those attacking midfield areas. Unfortunately, both Mayenda and Rusyn struggle to involve themselves regularly enough in dangerous areas to the opposition.

The action maps of Ross Stewart (top left), Joe Gelhardt (top right), Eliezer Mayenda (bottom left) and Nazariy Rusyn (bottom right) show how much a striker involvement has regressed over the last 12 months (Image: Wyscout)

Sunderland's offensive duel maps from fixture with Middlesbrough, Hull City, Huddersfield Town and Hull City under Michael Beale (Image: Wyscout)

To delve a little bit deeper into Sunderland’s attacking situation it is worth noting the overall pass maps from each game and the influence of each striker involved.

For example, immediately it is noticeable that Sunderland’s passing and structure against Middlesbrough hold a significant deal more balance to it than the other three examples. There is a clear forward line of Clarke (20), Stewart (14) and Roberts (10), with Amad (16) tucked close to Roberts on the right, with Stewart being a clear focal point in the team.

There is a tendency to favour the right side of the field, given Amad and Roberts’ relationship – the duo linked 41 times with one another, the most of any other pairing on the field that day - but overall there is a good blend to how Mowbray’s side approached this game. Stewart was involved in 62 passes with four of the top 10 passing links for Sunderland involving one of the front four.

Against Hull last season with Gelhardt, there remains an element of structure and balance, but it’s not as poignant as we see in the first example. Gelhardt finds himself slightly deeper than Amad in what resembles more of a 4-2-4 system, which is arguably why Sunderland were so expansive that day in conceding four times. The key thing to note here, however, is that the main passing lines are not in attacking areas but more from defence.

The highest passing link was between O’Nien and Neil with 31 exchanges, with only three of the front four involved in the top 10 passing links – Gelhardt involved in just 26 passes.

Against Huddersfield, with Mayenda, there are more clear forward-thinking passes, with Mayenda representing something of a focal point, but the majority of which are funnelled down the left to Clarke. Mayenda was involved in 21 passes but only Clarke was included in any of the top 10 passing links from the front four that night. Despite both Clarke and Roberts featuring against Huddersfield, the passing map suggests how narrow the game was made owning to Huddersfield’s set-up.

The final example from Beale’s Sunderland against Hull shows how much they lacked any width in Roberts’ absence with both Jobe and Pritchard tucked well in-field. Again, that meant an over reliance on Clarke, with the majority of the play channelled towards the left-hand-side of the field.

Clarke, more often than not, found himself slightly ahead of Rusyn who was involved in just 11 passes before being brought off having been left somewhat isolated. The front four of Clarke, Jobe, Pritchard and Rusyn combined for just two of the squads top 10 passing links throughout the game – Hume to Clarke being the most popular avenue.

Sunderland's pass maps show the balance and structure within the team with each different centre-forward as well as how there has been a bigger reliance on Jack Clarke in the two games this season (bottom left and right) (Image: Wyscout)

Those passes can be broken down again to analyse just how involved each striker was in terms of the influence in the game where team-mates will look to play a progressive pass into their striker.

Against Middlesbrough, Sunderland attempted 604 passes with an 88.41 per cent success rate. Within that they attempted 198 forward passes and 58 passes into the final third. Of the 74 attempted progressive passes registered, Stewart was involved in 14 of them.

In contrast, Sunderland attempted 505 passes with an 87.13 per cent success rate in the 4-4 draw with Hull including 176 forward passes and 47 passes into the final third. Gelhardt was involved in just six of 62 progressive passes – Amad the key target with 14.

The meeting with Huddersfield represented Sunderland’s most dominant display with the ball, with 722 attempted passes at a 90.58 per cent success rate. Within that, Mowbray’s side attempted 197 forward passes and 67 passes to the final third. 18-year-old striker Mayenda was involved in six of 80 progressive passes – Clarke had the most receptions with 14 but, much like Amad against Hull, they came in a wider area.

The final game covered saw Beale’s Sunderland attempt 545 passes with an 87.71 per cent success rate. Beale’s side attempted 155 forward passes and 65 to the final third with Rusyn involved in seven of 80 progressive passes. Interestingly, Hemir, who came on as a substitute for Rusyn in the second half, was also involved in seven progressive passes – Clarke the leader with 18.

The progressive pass involvements of Ross Stewart (left) and Joe Gelhardt (right) show how frequently Sunderland could move the ball into their front man (Image: Wyscout)

The progressive pass involvements of Eliezer Mayenda (left) and Nazariy Rusyn (right) (Image: Wyscout)

Those numbers again reiterate the importance that has been placed upon Clarke in this team. Within 12 months, with Stewart leading the line under Mowbray, Sunderland have transitioned from an almost complete front four with threats on the ground, in the air and on the break, to a side who are not quite able to exploit their threats outside of Clarke. Their match tempo is another figure which has decreased over the period of the last 12 months, from 19.42 against Middlesbrough to 16.11 against Hull under Beale – the two other games under Mowbray were above Sunderland’s average at 17.82.

Over the course of the last 12 months, Sunderland have fielded six so-called strikers to start in the league in Stewart, Gelhardt, Burstow, Hemir, Rusyn and Mayenda – with the likes of Pritchard, Clarke, Jobe, Bradley Dack and Abdoullah Ba, on occasion, drafted in by both Mowbray and Beale as a variation given Sunderland’s shortages and frustrations. If we focus on those six designated strikers, however, the outright stats tell their own story.

Stewart made just two appearances from that Middlesbrough game, scoring one goal. Overall, however, the Scotsman scored 10 goals in 13 league appearances and provided three assists last season. Gelhardt, who ended up replacing Stewart in the second half of the season, made 20 appearances, including two in the play-offs, and scored three times, providing three assists.

Burstow has been afforded the most opportunities this season as a starter after arriving on loan from Stamford Bridge and has made 13 appearances in total contributing just one assist. Hemir, who started Sunderland’s first game of the season against Ipswich, has made 14 appearances in total, just one as a starter, and is yet to contribute a goal or an assist. Likewise, Mayenda is yet to register a goal or an assist in his eight appearances this season, albeit just one as a starter, while Rusyn has scored the only goal of all four summer additions and also has one assist to his name in 12 appearances.

It's obvious then that Sunderland need a much better output from their central striker, but that can be aided by the way in which they play. Losing players of the calibre of both Stewart and Amad would hurt any team in the Championship but with Roberts and Clarke still occupying the wings and Jobe and Pritchard more than capable behind a striker, Sunderland do not necessarily need to reinvent the wheel at the Stadium of Light.

It's clear that a focal point who can allow those three attackers in behind to run beyond and stretch teams is what Sunderland need to get back to as shown by the positive trends involving Stewart compared to Gelhardt, Mayenda and Rusyn. But the fabric of Sunderland’s approach has altered slightly over the course of the last 12 months in search for that focal point, to the point they are struggling to replicate it.