Once upon a time Dan Neil’s most cherished moment in a Sunderland shirt would likely have been when pictured at Wembley Stadium alongside youth team-mate Sam Greenwood as Sunderland went toe-to-toe with Manchester City in the League Cup final – Neil’s dreams laid out in front of him.
Fast-forward a decade and Neil can bring about some reflection on his best campaign in senior football to date, a campaign which has been cut short three games before its conclusion due to a significant ankle injury sustained in training ahead of Sunderland’s 1-0 defeat to Millwall at the Stadium of Light.
Neil started all 42 games in the Championship he was available for prior to Sunderland’s penultimate home game of the season, his only absence coming back in October for the trip to Stoke City where he was suspended for picking up a controversial red card in the Wear-Tees derby defeat to Middlesbrough.
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Neil’s durability, in that sense, is one of his finest assets having made 149 senior appearances for the club already despite being just 22-years-old. Neil made his debut as a substitute in an EFL Trophy tie at Morecambe in 2018 and would make his first league start in Sunderland’s opening day win over Wigan Athletic to begin their promotion winning campaign of 2021-22 when operating at left-back as a 19-year-old.
Without knowing it, Neil epitomised the philosophy the club would undertake with sporting director Kristjaan Speakman. The fact Neil is now established, and often highlighted as one of the senior figures within the dressing room, says a lot about the principles of the club. But it wasn’t always like that.
Having started the 2021-22 season, Neil, almost by default, became a regular in Lee Johnson’s side. When Johnson was dismissed following a shocking 6-0 defeat at Bolton Wanderers and eventually replaced by Alex Neil with 15 games remaining in League One, Neil started just three more times and was an unused substitute in five of those games before also being left on the bench for all three of Sunderland’s play-off ties against Sheffield Wednesday, twice, and Wycombe Wanderers at Wembley.
“What we need to bear in mind with Dan is when I walked into the building, Dan played the first two games that I managed and then after that we all looked at him and thought ‘this kid needs a rest and taking out of the firing line.’ The kid was knackered," former head coach Neil explained on his namesake when taking him out of the starting line-up two years ago.
"The simple fact is you’ve got to earn the right to be in the team first and foremost but, equally, we need to make sure we used him sparingly to protect him as much as anything else."
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Neil, like any player would, felt aggrieved at missing out on the latter stages of the club's promotion season - particularly that trip to Wembley. He used that setback to demand more of himself in pre-season ahead of the club’s return to the Championship where he went on to feature in 45 of the 46 regular season games, 42 as a starter, as Sunderland reached the play-offs for a second successive season. It was the kind of maturity and driven focus current interim head coach Mike Dodds believes will take Neil to the upper echelons of the game.
"I have lots of conversations with Dan and towards the end of the League One campaign he actually came out of the team which, at the time, he didn’t particularly like – no player likes," Dodds tells We Are Sunderland. "But it was a really important period for him to reflect on why he came out of the team.
"It’s ironic because he ended the League One campaign out of the team and then he was starting in the team in the Championship the following season and I think that says everything about his character and the fact he reflects and he’s a real forward-thinking footballer. He looks at every aspect of his game to improve and I think that’s the bit that will take him to where he wants to get to and, hopefully, that’s here and he propels us to where we want to go.
"But I’ve always said how I think failure is an important area in development and that’s something that nobody should run away from, even myself as a young coach. Failure is a really important ingredient for success if you reflect on things and Dan Neil is a prime example of that in going from League One to the Championship and starting in the Championship and for the last two seasons he’s been a real unsung quality within the group."
Neil scored two goals and made four assists last season – a tally he has improved on this year with four goals and five assists where he finds himself Sunderland’s second highest goal contributor with nine, behind Jack Clarke’s 19. So why does it feel like he's unappreciated?
Goals and assists are not the only things Neil, and any player for that matter, are now judged on. Those metrics are a microcosm of the modern game which continues to evolve into a more scientific, cyber approach whether that be in terms of the data analysis used to zoom in on every element of a players game, both in and out of possession, or the introduction of technology in recent years in an attempt to aid the integrity and ruling of the game.
Unfortunately for Neil, due to the somewhat overreliance on him owing to the fact he has become such an integral part of this Sunderland team despite still being of such a young age, the midfielder finds himself under the microscope of scrutiny more than others.
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“I’m a huge Dan Neil fan," said Dodds. "In my personal opinion I don’t think he gets the credit he deserves. I think he’s got a huge future ahead of him and he should be one of the players the club are building the team around and I can’t speak highly enough of him.
"I think the club have got a really, really good footballer, a real humble boy who has come thorough the academy. He’s a wonderful asset. He’s tactically excellent, in both phases, in and out of possession. If I ask him to execute something, he’s almost like my voice on the pitch in terms of the tactical stuff with the things he spots and solves for you. I’ve got nothing but praise for Dan.
"Can he score more goals? Potentially. His counterargument to that is he’s obviously playing deeper, but I do think he’s a player who can have more effect in the top area of the pitch.”
A player of Neil’s undoubted quality, and potential still, means he will always be challenged to better himself. But a closer inspection of Neil’s two Championship seasons suggests he is heading in the right direction, even if it is not universally accepted from time to time.
Along with those four goals and five assists, Neil has made 48 key passes this season compared to 31 last year – only Clarke and Patrick Roberts have more than him.
Neil has made a total of 313 progressive passes, over 100 more than Sunderland’s next best player, Trai Hume, and a considerable increase on the 231 he made in 2022-23. Neil is behind only Clarke when it comes to shot creating actions [198-121] which translates to the same behind only Clarke in goal creating actions [18-10], as per FBref.
The midfielder has the most open play passes in the final third for Sunderland this season with 608, the most deep progressions with 296 and is the highest-ranked player in terms of expected goals (xG) build-up with 20.15. The xG build-up model attributes the xG value of the final shot to all players involved in the entire possession with the idea being to hand a little bit of the credit to those prior to the potential goal or assist, appeasing the assist of the assist, if you will.
StatsBomb’s pass sonar map gives a good indication as to Neil’s improvement in his passing as well as how that compares to the league average, having increased in success rate from 84 per cent to 88 per cent this season – only centre-back pairing Dan Ballard and Luke O’Nien have a higher pass completion rate which is aided by their combinations with one another in Sunderland’s style of play.
The sonars show Neil’s range of passing in terms of the distance of his pass and the success of it as highlighted by the length and colour of each section – the more red a section is, the higher completion success rate of the pass while also comparing him to the league average - the longer the shard, the more he is outperforming the league average. It also demonstrates where most of Neil’s works comes from in those middle six quadrants of the field.
If we compare that to last season’s radars, while still impressive, you can see Neil is a little more erratic in terms of the length of some of his passes in that midfield area with a slightly lower success rate as shown with the shades of yellow and blue.
In practice, you can see Neil’s impact with the ball at his feet this season, particularly when it comes to that xG build-up metric referenced earlier, given his influence in starting Sunderland’s attacks from deep.
Take the recent win over Cardiff City, for example. Neil completed 91 per cent of his passes, creating two chances for his team-mates with 16 passes into the final third, including this one for Luis Hemir. Neil picks the ball up on halfway and has the composure and confidence to thread a ball between the two centre-backs for Hemir to run onto with very little margin for error.
Another example of his ability to take the ball in a tight area and find a defence splitting pass came in the defeat at Carrow Road. Midway through the second half, with the game finely poised, Neil received possession with as many as eight Norwich City players in close proximity in what was an extremely condensed pitch.
Neil was able to take possession on the half turn and thread an immaculate pass into the path of Leo Hjelde who had advanced down the left wing – the defender’s cross, unfortunately, coming to nothing for Sunderland.
The composure and elegance within these types of highlights are what will, and are, appealing to clubs further up the pyramid with the likes of Liverpool one of the Premier League teams said to be keen on Neil over the last year.
But it will often be those goals and assists columns which will pique the most interest. Neil has developed that aspect of his game slightly with his runs from deep, but it is an area he will need to maximise his potential in if he is to take that next step up.
Take his assist for Jobe Bellingham in Sunderland’s win over Rotherham United early this season. Neil finds himself the most advanced player in a red and white shirt from Clarke’s cross and has the nous to head back across goal into a dangerous area where Jobe converts.
Likewise, Neil’s goal in the win over West Bromwich Albion demonstrates he does have the ability to be the midfield runner and contribute to attacks as well as continue his own deep-lying role.
As Sunderland break from a West Brom attack through Alex Pritchard, it is Neil who recognises the opportunity and bursts forward in support.
Pritchard’s pass is executed to perfection to allow Neil a clear run on goal but it also provides him with a decision to make as to how to beat the on-rushing Alex Palmer.
Neil shows great composure and intuitiveness to wait for Palmer to commit before deftly clipping the ball over him to double Sunderland’s advantage.
The key is when Neil can put all the elements of this part of the game together; to be the one who initiates the play from deep, makes the well-timed run and is on hand to convert. That came in the win over Norwich at the Stadium of Light in October.
Neil starts this move after picking up possession from Nazariy Rusyn on the halfway line. Instinctively, Neil sweeps the ball out wide to the left for Clarke before carrying his run forward.
Clarke produces a moment of individual brilliance to dribble beyond several Norwich players while Neil has timed his run to perfection to find himself in a pocket of space on the edge of the area, unmarked, where he is able to signal where he wants to receive the ball.
Neil’s first touch is exceptional as it takes the ball away from the defender onto his left before, similar to the goal against West Brom, he produces a stunning delicate chip over the goalkeeper.
Neil’s shot output is something else which has improved this season having nearly doubled his 33 efforts at goal in 2022-23, where only seven of those came from inside the penalty area. Neil is behind only Clarke, again, when it comes to his shots and key pass total this season.
With Neil featuring in a deeper midfield role, in order to enhance those numbers of goals, assists and various other attacking outputs, much is required of his ability to carry the ball into the opposition half and make recoveries. When first moved into midfield that is something Neil sometimes struggled to manage, whereby he would turn the ball over a little too easily in dangerous areas.
This season, however, he has shown an improved level of maturity, albeit there is still room for improvement. Neil is third, behind Clarke and Hume, when it comes to progressive carries this season but, equally, he has made the most opposition half ball recoveries by some margin with 217. Combined, Neil has registered 2,582 carry or recovery actions this season with just 107 ‘failed actions’ which equates to roughly just four per cent.
A closer inspection of some of those errors also show, when he is losing possession or making what is quantified as a ‘mistake,’ they are coming in less dangerous areas compared to last season.
The maps below show Neil made 57 defined ‘errors’ in 2022-23 compared to 43 this season, but those errors are taking place slightly further away from the defensive central midfield areas this season which can be less of a concern with regards to conceding from transitions as a result.
Despite his improvements, Neil has still been guilty of cheap turnovers in possession which can prove costly to Sunderland, as seen in the recent defeat to Blackburn Rovers at the Stadium of Light.
When showing for a throw-in from Callum Styles deep in Sunderland’s left-back area of the field, Neil attempts to shift the ball inside onto his right foot to progress the play, a move which is telepathed by Ryan Hedges who is immediately on hand to put him under pressure.
Hedges is able to steal the ball away from Neil which leaves Sunderland vulnerable inside their own penalty area and having to react. Hedges plays a ball into Tyrhys Dolan who is able to evade one challenge before prodding the ball in off the far post to add further misery to Sunderland and make the score 4-0.
That cheap turnover is something we have seen from Neil, particularly last season. Take the below example in Sunderland’s 1-0 defeat to Cardiff. Although the turnover does not result in a goal, it highlights the danger when giving away possession in the midfield area.
With Sunderland on the attack, a ball is cleared as far as Neil, who is one of two players back for Sunderland, and when trying to turn away from the pressure of Mark Harris, Neil loses possession as Sunderland find themselves in a difficult position.
Those are areas he will need to continue ironing out from his game, particularly as a central midfielder. But it is also why the likes of Liverpool have been interested. Dodds spoke recently about Chris Rigg’s development and how he sees the 16-year-old becoming a central midfield player further down the line but, for his development, utilising Rigg in a wide area is more beneficial at this moment in time.
That is a similar scenario to what Sunderland did with Jordan Henderson when he broke into the first team picture on a regular basis under Steve Bruce in 2009-10. Henderson, pinpointed as a central midfielder long-term, was often pitched on the right of Sunderland’s midfield where Liverpool still saw enough raw potential in the then 20-year-old as a deal worth up to £20million was agreed in 2011. Liverpool’s judgement was right as he went on to make almost 500 appearances for the Merseyside club in central midfield, cementing his legacy as club captain and guiding Liverpool to Premier League and Champions League titles.
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It makes Neil’s start in the game particularly impressive, given that he has not been afforded that supposed luxury of finding his feet in senior football outside the melting pot of central midfield. But for filling in at left-back in his first season, Neil has been both thrust and trusted with the centre-midfield pressures.
It is why Dodds is right to suggest Neil is more than likely underrated, as he continues to evolve in that role.
"I think this year, if you went back to the early games of the season, he did play more advanced. So I do think it’s a role he can definitely fulfil," Dodds tells We Are Sunderland on whether a move slightly further forward is on the cards for Neil in the future.
"In terms of what is his best position? He’s still a young man, he could end up being a No.6, he could end up being a No.8, I think he does both roles really well. I just think, even if he is playing as the No.6, we’re going to be a team who wants to have more of the ball moving forward and that No.6 position will be more advanced and be more in the opposition half than it would be in our half. So even as a No.6, I think he can have more of an influence on the top area of the pitch in terms of key passes or more forward passes and those types of things.
"He’s a wonderful asset and I think when he was injured for the Millwall game, I’ll be honest with you, it was a huge blow for me because of how highly I rate him. He’s going to be a massive miss."
Neil is contracted at the Stadium of Light until 2026 and, providing he is able to recover from his ankle injury in time for pre-season, Sunderland won't really feel his absence too much. But if he continues on his current performance trajectory, they may have to get used to life without him in the future.
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