The January jitters are in full swing. The transfer window has been open for almost three weeks, the deadline has hoved into view, but the hoped-for new signings have yet to materialise on Wearside.
Remind me: is it 2024, 2023, or 2022?
Because it seems every year Sunderland arrive at this point with their season hanging in the balance. Success, of one sort or another, is within reach but far from assured.
In 2022, Sunderland were in the running for the League One play-offs but the on-loan Everton striker Nathan Broadhead had been ruled out for months, leaving the Black Cats entirely reliant on Ross Stewart remaining fit and scoring goals. There was a fruitless striker search in January, free agent Jermain Defoe eventually returned for a short-lived, goalless, and instantly forgettable second spell, but thankfully Stewart kept banging them in and Broadhead returned in March just in time for the final push for the play-offs, which culminated in promotion at Wembley under Alex Neil.
Last year it was the recall of Ellis Simms to Everton that left the Black Cats in need of another frontman to complement Stewart, Joe Gelhardt arrived on loan from Leeds United but almost immediately Stewart suffered an injury which cut short his season, and it quickly became apparent that Gelhardt could not fill the void left by the Scot, putting the club’s play-off chances in jeopardy. Again, they made it as Tony Mowbray found a way and sixth place was secured on the final day of the season, which was a fine achievement on the club’s return to the Championship.
And here we are once more in 2024. This time Sunderland’s need is, if anything, even greater.
The travelling Sunderland fans at Ipswich Town last weekend insisted ‘we want a striker’ as their side toiled away without a recognised frontman, imploring Michael Beale to make a substitution at Portman Road but their message was targeted as much at those in the directors’ box as at the figure in the dugout. Stewart, Sunderland’s only proven Championship striker having scored 10 goals in 13 games last season, departed in the summer and the four men brought in to replace him have collectively scored one goal in 45 league appearances this term.
Only Nazariy Rusyn, scorer of that single goal, has looked anywhere near the level required, with the raw Luis Hemir and the on-loan Chelsea youngster Mason Burstow showing little, if any, improvement since arriving, while Eliezer Mayenda has potential but has been severely hampered by injury. Yet, despite their striker trouble, Sunderland sit seventh in the table with only goal-difference keeping them outside the top six, and a win against Hull City tonight will see Beale’s side move back into the play-off places.
Their season is very much alive, and the comings and goings over the next 12 days before the window closes will decide whether it stays that way.
First and foremost, Sunderland simply must hold on to their star asset Jack Clarke. In the absence of a functioning frontman, the winger’s 13 goals constitute more than a third of the team’s total. Cash in on him this month and Sunderland will almost certainly be cashing out on this season’s play-off hopes.
Secondly, Sunderland need to find the natural goalscorer they so obviously lack. Admittedly, strikers are the most precious commodity in football and January is the worst time to be scouring the market for one, with scarcity multiplied by desperation equalling a price premium.
But sometimes needs must.
Sunderland may also have to show some flexibility as far as their model of signing young emerging talents who can be developed, and one day sold on, is concerned. The three strikers who joined on permanent deals in the summer may fit the club’s template but they have yet to deliver; the immediate need is for a frontman who can hit the ground running and score the goals that will light a fire under their play-off bid in the final 19 games.
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That might mean spending some money on a player in his late 20s - maybe even early 30s - with a demonstrable track record in the Championship. And that could be the difference between finishing in the play-offs and missing out by three or six points come May.
If they fall short despite bringing in an established striker there will be few complaints, but if they do so after another youngster arrives and struggles to make an impact - or worse, no new frontman comes in - the powers-that-be will leave themselves wide open to criticism. Just because they managed to reach the play-offs for the last two seasons without recruiting the striker they so obviously needed in January, it does not follow that it will turn out that way this time around.
In short, Sunderland cannot afford to keep pushing their luck. Eventually it will run out.
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