It’s not often you can walk away from a play-off semi-final defeat and remain pleasantly upbeat about the prospects of your club’s aspirations there and then. But that’s exactly where Sunderland found themselves ten months ago.
A defence decimated by injuries, an attack lacking an outright focal point, a squad challenged by its lack of experience. Yet Sunderland, under Tony Mowbray, had punched their way to the Championship play-offs in their first season back in the second tier with one courageous swing after another. They would eventually miss out on yet another Wembley appearance by the narrowest of margins as Luton Town overturned a first leg deficit to advance and, eventually, clinch promotion to the Premier League.
Overachievement for Sunderland? Perhaps. But this was a hellacious ride and one which provided such optimism and hope of a club heading back in the right direction after years of decline.
For that, majority owner Kyril Louis-Dreyfus and sporting director Kristjaan Speakman deserve great credit. When Speakman arrived in December 2020, a managerless Sunderland were floundering seventh in the League One table, nine points behind leaders Hull City. To climb 25 places up the football pyramid in just two-and-a-half years is a marked achievement.
And yet as Luton fans and players serenaded on that night last May, somewhere in a side room in Kenilworth Road something was amiss. Sunderland had fallen just short after a fearless campaign. But with one or two tweaks over the summer, the potential was tangible. That was until Mowbray cast doubt over his future at the club.
“I’ve enjoyed it, but who knows what my future holds,” said Mowbray. “Let’s wait and see. Do I want to be here next season? I do, yes. But let’s wait and see how it goes, and what the summer brings.
“Modern-day football clubs can do what they want. I’m pretty relaxed. I feel like I’ve come in here and managed to work with these young players, create a team environment that has done alright despite huge losses of some very important footballers.”
Mowbray had been irked by Sunderland’s interest in Italian coach Francesco Farioli just weeks prior to that play-off tie with Luton – with the club’s hierarchy, perhaps, considering a change which complemented their philosophy a little more than what they felt Mowbray did. Mowbray was circumspect, having been made aware of the speculation, and had discussed the situation with Speakman but clearly felt there were questions to be answered, despite the club’s success.
In the end, Sunderland stuck with Mowbray – such was the backlash at suggestions to the contrary. But, if you are looking to pinpoint somewhere on the timeline of Speakman and Louis-Dreyfus’ era as to where things began to turn, that night in Bedfordshire is as good a starting point as any.
Despite cracks in the relationship, Sunderland's desire to improve saw Speakman deliver promises of building a team that would compete at the top end of the table. "We want to be putting out a team that can be challenging at the top of the league," he said at the end of last season.
"No-one is satisfied with getting into the play-offs - while it is a great achievement in the first year back, we have to keep being successful and we have to keep improving."
But that situation forged lines between Mowbray and the men in the suits, as he would often refer. The club’s pre-season tour to America was another element which frustrated Mowbray who had questioned the need for such an energy-sapping tour when it came to the club’s travel.
But one thing which never wavered was Mowbray’s affinity for the young squad of players assembled by Speakman and the club’s recruitment team, something which they may need to consider following the now failed tenure of Michael Beale.
If Mowbray was not their preferred option at the end of last season, regardless of the relative success of the 2022-23 campaign, it was a decision you could argue they should have held their nerve over and pressed ahead with. Because what transpired, with Mowbray of the belief that he wasn’t sufficiently supported in the transfer market with ready-made Championship calibre players to aid the younger talent within the squad, was an inevitable plateau and his eventual dismissal in December.
But was that decision purely down to results and a run of two wins in nine games? Or had those seeds been planted some seven months earlier?
In the recent release of season three of Netflix’s ‘Sunderland ‘Til I Die’ Louis-Dreysfus provides context behind the decision to part ways with Lee Johnson back in January 2022 with Sunderland, now driven by data analytics and metrics, not projected to finish in the automatic promotion spots in League One. With that in mind, the focus shifted to find a head coach who would ensure the club made the top six and who then had experience of negotiating a successful play-off campaign, which saw the arrival of Alex Neil.
But having guided Sunderland back to the Championship, Neil was the first to find himself in dispute with the club’s approach before leaving to join Stoke City. Although Neil’s tenure with Stoke flattered to deceive, the fact that both he and Mowbray, competent, nurturing and experienced coaches, found holes in Sunderland’s blueprint is cause for concern.
It is why the club eventually landed on Beale after deciding to make a change from Mowbray in December – but again, not exactly smooth sailing.
“Tony is like any top coach, they've got their views and their perspective if you like,” said Speakman. “We're always open to having discussions. I think, ultimately, for supporters, they want to have a winning team. The difficulty is change. The difficulty internally and externally is you get attached, familiarisation and comfort because; this is the person that's doing this job and this is the direction of travel.
“We understand how difficult those decisions are, but for us they're always done around staying aligned to what we're trying to do and what we're trying to achieve. Ultimately, in the best interests of the football club.”
But it is from this point where Speakman and Louis-Dreyfus have acted out their biggest errors to date – beyond that of flirting with the idea of Farioli when Mowbray was still in place.
Sunderland were, initially, high on former Preston North End youth team coach Will Still, after the Belgian began making a name for himself in French Ligue 1 with Stade Remis where he became the youngest manager in Europe's top five leagues at the age of 30 – a marriage Sunderland were keen to have with their title of having the youngest squad in the Championship.
But the timing and economics to pry Still from France, despite not yet reaching 100 games as a head coach, did not tally up for Sunderland which meant interest in Still was quelled. The interview process led the club to Beale who had impressed with his enthusiasm to comply with the structure of the club – his coaching pedigree another interest to the Sunderland board despite Beale himself having managed outright for little over 100 games himself for Queens Park Rangers and Rangers.
“With this type of squad, the alignment within the club, it's hugely exciting,” said Beale. “There's a lot of work to do for sure, but going through the talks I became more excited as we went on because there was a lot of common ground and I'm delighted to be here.”
READ MORE: Sunderland might have found the right head coach in Mike Dodds
It was a concerted effort to move more towards a coaching philosophy as opposed to an all-rounder, such as Mowbray. But Beale still had the same issues as Mowbray to deal with in that he had to improve the club’s fortunes in line with Speakman’s pre-season objectives.
"You have an understanding about the coaches on the circuit in England and mine and Michael's path had crossed a few times,” Speakman explained of Beale’s appointment. “We try to make sure we have a really good understanding about the coaches that are out there, doing well, doing different things, coaches that are outperforming.
“Everything we've seen, everything we thought we'd be getting from Michael in terms of an excellent on the field coach, his preparation, his thought processes behind the training and what the boys are doing, it's some of the best work I've seen and we're really pleased to have him here."
Beale’s appointment, however, felt doomed from the onset having been announced amid the furore of a series of calamitous errors in judgement surrounding Sunderland’s FA Cup third round tie with Newcastle United. As the club dropped the ball off the field over ticket allocations and signage in the Stadium of Light’s premium hospitality suite, the Black Cats Bar, the appointing of a head coach deemed a sideways step from the outside only added to what was becoming an increasing powder keg.
The board will have heard the reaction of supporters in Beale’s opening game in charge – a 3-0 defeat to Coventry City, where there were a chorus of boos and chants for axed head coach Mowbray. Even at that point, the questions as to whether they had made the right decision must have been creeping in.
The rationale for a changing the head coach was to seek an improvement, much like it was with Johnson two years ago, but it quickly became clear that improvement was not forthcoming with Beale, despite those coaching acknowledgments made by Speakman, with the club, at best, standing still – Beale matching the record of Mowbray’s final 12 games in charge with four wins before his departure this week.
Beale’s conduct prior to Sunderland’s fixture with Stoke City in January, when seemingly hitting back at supporters who he felt ‘didn’t want me in the first place,’ ignited the internal fears over his suitability for the club and left them pondering a change before delaying what felt like the inevitable with seven points from the next three fixtures.
But after the club were unable to address the glaring needs within the squad in the January transfer window, Beale was left isolated with a squad who already may have been losing belief in their head coach before his exit was confirmed.
There’s something ironically poetic about the decision to part ways with Beale coming following Sunderland’s defeat to Mowbray’s Birmingham City. It wasn’t quite a case of ‘look what you could still have’ but it very much painted a damaging picture of Beale who portrayed a lonely figure on the touchline – the incident involving defender Trai Hume and failing to acknowledge his handshake proving to be another inescapable moment, irrespective of the level of intent.
Two years ago, the club felt the data tracking was not enough for the club to get where they wanted to go with Johnson so they made a change. Earlier this season with Mowbray, coupled with those strained relations, they made a similar call. Both, as with any managerial decision in football, came with their elements of risk and reward. One worked, the other has not.
“We are disappointed that Michael is leaving Sunderland AFC. Our desire is to improve and unfortunately that hasn’t been evident, as such we take full accountability and feel that acting decisively is in the best interests of the club,” Speakman said via a club statement following confirmation of Beale’s exit.
“This has been a difficult few months for Michael, who leaves with our best wishes for the future. Our focus is now on the players and supporting Mike Dodds in the remaining games to ensure we achieve the highest possible league finish. We will be updating our supporters further as and when significant developments are made.”
There are two trains of thought at this juncture; one being the club have acknowledged their mistake and are acting accordingly, the other being it is an admission of failure.
Since the summer, the club’s hierarchy have done little to dampen the expectation of a concerted play-off push with a thirst for ‘progression.’ The decision to part ways with Mowbray, as per Louis-Dreyfus’ statement, was also centred around ‘a relentless demand for a high-performance culture to be implemented throughout the club.’ That is a culture which has been lacking over the course of the last 11 weeks since Mowbray’s exit.
Within that time, Sunderland have removed a head coach who was hugely respected by the fan base in a decision which was not met with unanimous support for a coach where that feeling was far from linear. The handling of the Newcastle fixture in its entirety will leave a blot on their copybook, regardless of any successes and failures throughout their tenure with the lasting image of Newcastle’s squad and staff posing for a team photo in front of the increased allocation in Sunderland’s home stand, whilst January, in the end, represented another missed opportunity in the transfer market as the club, again, failed to address the key requirements in the squad to push on in the here and now.
Has there been enough ambition shown since Mowbray’s near miss in the play-offs last season? Has there been enough of that high-performance culture in the subsequent ten months?
READ MORE: Sunderland's Michael Beale experiment comes crashing down
In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Sunderland’s young owner, Louis-Dreyfus underlined the club’s hypothesis in that ‘what we’re trying to do on the football side is invest in young talent and give them the opportunity and the belief’ in a bid to overcome the ‘biggest discrepancy between potential and actual.’ Within the same breath Louis-Dreyfus highlights how promotion to the Premier League is ‘an absolute necessity.’
But that mission statement does not feel like it correlates with what has transpired at the Stadium of Light over the course of the last three months in particular. Sunderland, statistically, are further away from the play-offs and another shot at promotion than they were when they made the decision to change Mowbray. What they have ended up with is the shortest managerial or head coach reign in the club’s history outside of Niall Quinn’s cameo as combined chairman and manager in 2006 prior to the appointment of Roy Keane.
Success is not always going to be sequential, there will be bumps in the road. And this has been a major one. What happens next is critical for the reign of Louis-Dreyfus and Speakman with justification to some of the questions being asked.
“I have been tasked with delivering a best-in-class player development model from the academy through to the senior squad and given a realistic timeframe and budget with which to do so,” Speakman explained following his appointment in 2020.
“It is an absolute honour to have been invited to do this at one of England’s biggest clubs. The blueprint for the future and the ambition to create a sustainable structure with a clear identity is one I will work diligently and passionately to bring to fruition for Sunderland fans. I’m grateful for the autonomy granted me by the ownership group to pursue this plan and create something we can all be proud of.
“I fully understand the potential of the football club and I’m looking forward to working collectively with staff, players and fans to restore the club to its rightful place in the Premier League. There’s no doubt about the size of the task ahead of us and the need to be pragmatic in our approach, but we all share the same dream and the work starts now to make this a reality.”
But there is a fine line between that dream and the sustainable, high-performance culture Sunderland seek.
The opportunity to get promoted to the Premier League doesn’t come along too often, just ask the likes of Leeds United, Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Wednesday who had to wait over 15 and 20 years in Leeds and Forest’s case, with the Owls now heading into their 25th year outside the top flight. When that opportunity comes you have to grasp the nettle.
Sunderland, unexpectedly, had that chance last season before falling just short. The chance for that progression the club’s hierarchy are guided by came in the summer, to build on that nearly moment. As things stand, through a series of transfer windows and coaching changes, it looks like that platform for growth has passed Sunderland by for the time being.
Sunderland, undoubtedly, have a talented group – courtesy of the work done over the last three years. But how long can they afford not to capitalise on this talented group before having to start again? This summer will likely see the exit of Jack Clarke, Sunderland’s star man. He will follow in the footsteps of Ross Stewart’s sale and Amad Diallo’s loan return in players who Sunderland haven’t quite been able to replace for the here and now. But the question is; can Sunderland genuinely plot a path to promotion by continuing to avoid supplementing these talents sufficiently enough?
It felt as though Sunderland were very close to the right formula last season before a regression in the summer with their play-off hopes now dwindling.
Where do Speakman and Louis-Dreyfus go from here? So far there has been a resistance to fluctuate from their strategy. They are undoubtedly in a much greater position than when the came into the club but if they are to reach the promised land of the Premier League there may need to be an acceptance to bending rather than breaking when it comes to that philosophy.
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Sunderland might have found the right head coach in Mike Dodds
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What went wrong for Michael Beale as head coach of Sunderland?
You can see why Beale appealed to the ownership group with his coaching credentials, but as a head coach it was an underwhelming appointment based on the style of head coach who have achieved success at Sunderland under this regime in Neil and Mowbray. The answer is likely to be somewhere in the middle of those characteristics – the task now is to find it with Sunderland now searching for a fifth permanent head coach in just two years which brings further questions as to its sustainability.
Speakman accepts responsibility for the failed tenure of Beale, a nine-week period which has seen Sunderland, at very best, stand still. But the overarching image is a club who have made a number of glaring mistakes, on and off the field, over the course of the last three months which has jeopardised trust with supporters as well as jeopardising the club’s promotion hopes. It’s imperative the steps to appointing the right head coach and recruitment in the summer do not leave anymore second guessing.
In search for their continued trend of high-performance culture, Sunderland have found themselves in a corner, now having to acknowledge their errors culminating in the shortest managerial reign in the club’s history. There’s no doubt about it, after a largely successful tenure in charge at the Stadium of Light, the pressure is now on.
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