Sunderland are approaching dangerous must-win territory if they want to match their own pre-season expectation following the defeat to Norwich City. The 1-0 defeat at Carrow Road makes it four games on the bounce without a win, leaving them nine points adrift of the Championship top-six, and equally just nine points adrift of the relegation zone.
It's the harsh reality of where the club are. For all the talk of positivity and belief they can finish inside the play-off picture, it seems unlikely in the current vein of form with a section of supporters already writing the season off.
If you want to talk about being optimistic and finishing in the top-six, then you HAVE to mention the gap to the bottom three. Will Sunderland be relegated? Not likely. Will they finish in the top-six? Also, not likely.
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Before he departed, Michael Beale said that Sunderland would need more points than the 69 they accumulated last season, to finish in the top-six. As things stand, they'd need 23 points to finish on 70, just one more point than the previous campaign, but that also seems like it wouldn't be enough.
Leicester City, Leeds United, Ipswich Town and Southampton have already surpassed that mark, while West Brom are on 59 points, Hull City on 56. Yesterday's opponents Norwich City on 55.
The Black Cats would need a minor miracle to finish in the top-six, going on a winning run while also hoping sides around them drop points. That being said, interim head coach Mike Dodds remains in a positive mindset.
"What we have to do is keep doing what we’re doing on the training pitch, which is a really positive thing and sooner rather than later the tide will turn if we just stay focused and concentrate on what we’re doing," he said following the defeat to Norwich City.
Belief in the way they're working, but the current run of form suggests something needs to change.
The Black Cats registered an expected goals of just 0.71 from 12 shots according to StatsBomb. It's the seventh game, out of 16 since Tony Mowbray's departure where they've registered an xG of less than one. They did that just twice under Mowbray in the opening 19 games of this season.
Nazariy Rusyn's header at Carrow Road in the 88th minute accounting for 0.19 of their overall expected goals. Pierre Ekwah's effort on the 77th minute, which almost went out for a throw in, equating for 0.12.
Out of the 12 efforts against Norwich City, they were the only efforts that registered above 0.10. So just where does the blame lie?
We won't divulge into off the pitch matters, given they're well documented, with results and performances the main concern as things stand.
Injuries are one of a number of issues blighting Sunderland - not least the absence of Jack Clarke who's been their standout performer, but the absences of Corry Evans, Patrick Roberts, Bradley Dack, Niall Huggins, Dennis Cirkin, Aji Alese, limits the ability to rotate players in and and out of the squad.
Welcoming some of those absentees back could be a major boost, even if it just improves the mood around the place and adds further competition to the matchday squad. The injuries have only shone a spotlight on Sunderland's recruitment this season.
Is this current squad of players good enough to finish inside the top-six? On current form and league standing, the answer is no. Certainly if we compare the pre-season aims, outlined by sporting director Kristjaan Speakman at the end of last season, they're vastly underperforming.
"We want to be putting out a team that can be challenging at the top of the league," Speakman told the club's YouTube channel. "No-one is satisfied with getting into the play-offs - while it is a great achievement in the first year back, we have to keep being successful and we have to keep improving."
Has the recruitment this season been good enough? With 11 games to go and a metaphorical mountain to climb, you'd argue not.
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There's the caveat that this is the club's second season back in the second tier after a four-year absence in League One, but supporters aren't clamouring for automatic promotion. Was last year an over achievement? Even this season Sunderland have shown signs of it being able to compete with the top teams in the division, but unlike last year, where they had Ross Stewart, Amad Diallo or Clarke, they've missed that 'X Factor' in the final third.
They're not alone in their struggles. Coventry City and Middlesbrough, the other two teams to finish in the top-six last season, lost key players in the summer and have struggled recently.
It's a sign of the strength of the Championship, but where the Black Cats once had this youthful swagger, combined with experience, they've looked disjointed and lacking leadership over the course of the campaign.
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