Sunderland welcome Newcastle United to the Stadium of Light for the first time since October 2015 when the two sides collide in the third round of the FA Cup.
It’s the first time the two teams have met in almost eight years with both clubs having suffered relegation from the Premier League in the time since with Sunderland now the ones playing catch up as they look to return to the top flight themselves.
You have to go back to 1956 for the last time Sunderland and Newcastle squared off in the FA Cup and yet the rivalry remains the same – if anything it has intensified during the absence of the Wear meeting Tyne over the majority of the last decade. Sunderland have found themselves at rock bottom when dropping into League One, where they spent four years, before a hugely encouraging return to the Championship last year where they narrowly missed out on a play-off final and the chance to return to the Premier League. That remains the goal on Wearside this season, with the club back in the top six of the division as league football takes a break for the FA Cup.
North of the water, however, and things are a little bit different after Newcastle’s takeover was completed by the Saudi Arabian-backed consortium little over two years ago. The club have gone from strength-to-strength in that time under head coach Eddie Howe with Champions League football retuning to Tyneside earlier this season. Given Newcastle’s accelerated success in that time, the disparity between the two clubs in terms of on-field quality has, arguably, never been greater – that despite the progression of Sunderland’s youthful side.
It leaves new head coach Michael Beale and his side facing a potentially huge mountain to climb when the two sides clash at the Stadium of Light.
But just how can Sunderland win this game? We Are Sunderland writers Matty Hewitt and Joe Ramage break down where the Wear-Tyne derby may be won or lost:
Newcastle United's long-ball transition
Sunderland know they'll have to be at their very best to get a win over their arch rivals this weekend and may have to call upon the dark arts to do so. New boss Beale says his side will be doing the exact same as the visitors this weekend to win the tie, within the laws of the game. First impressions of Beale have shown us a coach who isn't afraid to tinker with his approach to suit the opposition. Take the Boxing Day win over Hull City. A clean sheet on the road and a moment of magic from Jack Clarke. A perfect away performance.
Interestingly, Sunderland set-up in a mid-block at the MKM Stadium, allowing the hosts to have the ball in their own half, then spring into action and trigger a press when the ball was played into midfield areas. Tigers' boss Liam Rosenior admitted in his post-match press conference that this had taken him by surprise, with his team set-up to deal with a high press and pass through the Black Cats. We could see a similar approach this weekend against Newcastle.
The Magpies come into the game on the back of a 4-2 defeat to Liverpool, but it was a game that should have set off the alarm bells for Howe and his coaching staff. There's plenty of allowances for the Magpies head coach given the injury outbreak at St. James' Park, admitting his side were open at Anfield. Statistics can often be manipulated to suit a rhetoric, but Newcastle conceded a record breaking 7.27 expected goals in the game on New Year's Day, taking 34 shots with 15 of those on target.
Looking back through some of those opportunities conceded, we see a vast amount of those come from Newcastle attacks. Sunderland have been known to play better in expansive, open games, struggling to break sides down who've played with a low-block. The pace of Clarke and Patrick Roberts on the counter - if the latter is deemed fit enough to play - could prove vital in getting a result. Take this instance below.
Here we see Virgil Van Dijk with the ball on the edge of his own 18-yard-box. Newcastle activate their press, with Trent Alexander-Arnold making a run down the byline towards his own goal, bringing Tino Livramento with him. Of course, it's worth saying the long-ball pedigree of the Dutchman is world class, as too is his pinpoint accuracy with the pass.
We see the centre-half make the most of the space in behind Livramento and pick out Luis Diaz on the break, running in behind Newcastle's back line. Darwin Nunez and Mo Salah are left two-on-two with Dan Burn and Sven Botman, racing into the box and Liverpool eventually get a shot on goal.
Since November, Newcastle have the worst xG of goals against in the Premier League, at 23.7, averaging an xG of 2.4 per game. They may have conceded 'just 18' goals in that timeframe, but when they do concede it's often in a flurry.
“The defensive performance had to be better to win the game,” Howe said at full-time. He knows that this weekend's game is a must win at the Stadium of Light.
Jack Clarke v Kieran Trippier
Assuming that Kieran Trippier returns to the Newcastle starting line-up, the battle between the England full-back and one of the Championship’s best wingers in Clarke is, naturally, going to be one of the key factors in which way the red and white-black and white pendulum may swing.
Clarke will likely be going up against Trippier regardless next season, whether Sunderland realise their aim of promotion or not, with the 23-year-old destined to move up a level by the summer at the latest given his exploits on Wearside. Only three players have scored more goals than the Sunderland wide man in the Championship this season with Clarke close to a one in two goal contribution ratio throughout his time at the Stadium of Light. It, therefore, goes without saying he will likely be instrumental in Sunderland achieving a positive result.
In his way, however, will likely be Trippier. The full-back missed the defeat to Liverpool with a groin injury but despite Howe’s clandestine nature when discussing the 33-year-old’s fitness, it would be a surprise if he did not return to the Newcastle starting line-up given both his quality and experience.
Trippier has been out of form for Howe’s side in recent weeks with a series of errors leading to goals as Newcastle themselves have struggled for form since this draw was made. Again, however, if Trippier is fit, that is likely to be overlooked given what he can offer to this game.
And yet there may be some cause for optimism for Clarke and Sunderland. Looking at the defeats Newcastle have suffered over the last month, and games in which Trippier has featured, he has found himself up against the players, more often than not, with the most progressive carries (PrgC) in each team. For example, against Tottenham Hotspur, Trippier was up against Heung-min Son, who has had 57 carries this season, and, at times, Dejan Kulusevski who has had 100. Son scored and assisted twice, with both assists for Destiny Udogie and Richarlison coming from clear head-to-head duels with Trippier.
As you can see from both of Son's assists (above and below), the South Korean draws Trippier in before shifting the ball to his left to cross.
A few days earlier against Everton, Trippier was at fault for the first two Everton goals when losing possession inside his own half. First he turned the ball over cheaply to Dwight McNeil who is the Toffees leader when it comes to PrgC this season at 41 before doing so again soon after under pressure from Jack Harrison who is third with 30. In both games against Tottenham and Everton, Trippier won just 30 and 50 per cent of his defensive duels respectively.
Against Chelsea in the quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup, Mykhailo Mudryk was able to capitalise on an error from the defender when his header back to goalkeeper Dubravka was short. Trippier was introduced at the start of the second half in that game and came up against Raheem Sterling for over half-an-hour – Sterling the player with the most progressive carries (92) at Chelsea this season.
Nottingham Forest earned a surprise 3-1 victory at St James’ Park on Boxing Day with Anthony Elanga (61PrgC) and Callum Hudson-Odoi (31PrgC) two of Forest’s top three when it comes to the statistic, both who caused problems in wide areas, with Morgan Gibbs-White, second on the list for Forest with 45, equally as effective through the middle. Trippier did, however, improve when it came to his success rate in defensive duels against Forest, and Luton Town before that, with 67 and 79 per cent respectively.
Earlier in the season after Newcastle suffered back-to-back defeats to Manchester City and Liverpool, Trippier was up against Kaoru Mitoma in the 3-1 defeat at Brighton & Hove Albion. Mitoma is Brighton’s leading player when it comes to PrgC with 109 with the Japanese midfielder assisting one of Brighton’s goals that day.
There is, of course, context in this. All of these players are Premier League standard and there are other threats on the field in their respective teams where, for instance, Trippier may be dragged in-field to cover. And yet there is small evidence to suggest Trippier has been troubled, at times, when players are able to run at him with the ball – something which is Clarke’s forte.
Clarke is by some distance the player with the most PrgC’s in the Championship with 231 and he will be keen to test Trippier early on given his fitness and form issues. Trippier’s undoubted threat in attack for Newcastle, with the defender top of the Premier League's xA chart with 8.03 and top of the division's progressive pass tally with 273, brings another area of interest given the space that may allow Clarke in counter-attack situations as we saw against Preston North End. Either way, this is a real acid test for Clarke going up against one of the top full-backs in the country and if he can somehow find a way to win that battle, we have seen how effective he can be in games already this season as he sits atop of the expected goals and assists chart in the Championship with 17.33.
READ MORE: Predicted XI: Will Patrick Roberts make it for Sunderland to face Newcastle?
Michael Beale v Eddie Howe
Like any game, the outcome of each players’ individual battle will, ultimately, determine which way a game will go. We could analyse all areas of the field – particularly how Sunderland’s full-backs will cope with Anthony Gordon and Joelinton, or how Sunderland’s centre-back pairing will deal with a £60million-plus player in Alexander Isak.
But the tactical battle itself will be quite fascinating.
Recently, we have seen Sunderland adapt their approach when facing high-flying teams in the Championship – notably against Leeds United. Mike Dodds, then the interim manager, tweaked Sunderland’s formation to deal with one of the Championship’s more potent attacks with a back three and it worked perfectly as they secured a 1-0 victory. Can Sunderland, and Beale, afford to try something similar here, though?
The reality is, given their superiority, Newcastle will be a long way removed from the kind of mid-to-low block calibre teams Sunderland face frequently in the Championship. The Magpies will be coming to Wearside to attack and assert themselves and thus demonstrate that superiority. Whichever way Beale sets up brings its own element of risk.
Should Sunderland look to contain Newcastle, you are inviting a forward line, should it consist of Joelinton, Isak and Gordon, of around £150m onto you. That with a defence led by Luke O’Nien at the age of 29 who has never played in the Premier League and has less than 70 games to his name in the Championship. Alongside him you are likely to have 24-year-old Dan Ballard, with 21-year-old Trai Hume and 22-year-old Aji Alese, all with zero Premier League games to their name. It would be a big ask.
Equally, however, Beale instructing Sunderland to go gung-ho and try and match Newcastle could be just as difficult. Howe’s side are characterised by their high-tempo and transition in games and, although they lost at Anfield, they recorded their highest match tempo of the season at 19.18 – a number Sunderland have not nearly matched in almost a year.
When it comes to the two manager’s derby success rates, neither has much to particularly encourage them. Howe lost both of his games in charge of Bournemouth against Southampton during his first stint with the club in 2010 before winning just two of 10 across an eight-year period in his second spell from 2012-2020.
Beale, on the other hand, enjoyed success over Millwall when in charge of Queens Park Rangers before winning just one of six Old Firm games when in charge of Rangers. Beale’s only success at Ibrox over the other half of Glasgow came at the fifth time of asking in a 3-0 win after Celtic had already been crowned champions. He lost four of six after drawing his first derby north of the border.
Summary
Where does this all leave us? Again, it’s a difficult one.
In terms of quality and current standing, Newcastle should win this game. And yet it’s both a derby and a cup tie – both titles which are unanimously grouped with the old ‘form goes out of the window’ cliché.
Despite the pressure that naturally comes with a derby game, however, for Beale this fixture represents a huge opportunity for his players to prove to themselves that they have the capability to move up another level, whether that be with Sunderland or elsewhere in the future.
“It’s important we feel the strength and the backing of the fans but then we go and perform and play the game in front of us,” said Beale.
“It’s a really good opportunity for some of my young players who want to go and play in the Premier League to go and show they’re more than worthy of doing that. It’s important we understand that we’re a good team and we can hurt them if we play to the best of our capabilities.
“The focus for us will always be the league, but when you draw your main rivals in the FA Cup third round at home, naturally it’s a final. Whenever you play a derby it’s a final. It’s not a normal game.
“We’ve got real high ambitions in the second half of the season. The feedback, either way, we need because we want to keep improving and getting stronger. This is a great opportunity for them to go and show that against a team who may not have had perfect results of late but let’s not fool ourselves, this Newcastle squad is a very good one.”
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