"We were the more dominant team in the game, but we lacked a cutting edge in the final third. I think for our possession, the more attempts we had, I think we should do better in the final third. That's on me as a coach. It's on me to find the solutions to that."
A frank assessment from Michael Beale following the disappointing defeat to Hull City last Friday night. Laboured, slow in possession and looking void of ideas in the final third.
Sunderland's season rests on a knifepoint, still in touch with the play-off places but also at risk of the campaign unravelling pretty quickly.
The Black Cats' expected goals is on a downward trajectory since the arrival of Beale as head coach, and the fluidity on the pitch that saw them attract so many plaudits under Tony Mowbray, has also started to fade.
Admittedly, we're just a month or so into his tenure at the Stadium of Light and it's been a baptism of fire as he gets used to new surroundings and his squad.
Kristjaan Speakman spoke about making an early change in parting ways with Mowbray, so maybe we're seeing the prophecy the Sunderland sporting director foretold at Beale's unveiling, or is there more to it?
"I think ultimately, the club is obsessed with progression and improving and we felt to meet that progression and that improvement, we need to make a change," Speakman said last month. "Do you make the change early and then maybe it’s a surprise and people are maybe concerned and it doesn’t really weigh up to the results because we weren’t in a bad position? Or do you make the decision late?
"Michael spoke about the opportunity to come into a team which is performing well. The team is in a good spot. He hasn’t got to pick the team up off a long series of poor, negative results or position in the table. And we just felt that that was the right time to make the change."
Would Mowbray have fared better over the same period? We'll never know.
The early statistical return suggest a backwards step, rather than progression, but for Beale, there's the further caveat the Wearsiders' have played teams in and around the promotion picture, but that only emphasises the importance of coming away from those games with three points.
Much has been made of Sunderland's four strikers struggling for goals this season, with Jack Clarke comfortably their best player in front of goal. However, how much of that is down to the service they're getting in the final third and has the absence of Patrick Roberts contributed to the Black Cats' struggles in front of goal?
READ MORE: Michael Beale clarifies Sunderland's recruitment model
Beale certainly thinks the absence of Roberts is a contributing factor.
Speaking ahead of the game against Hull City last week, Beale said: "I think it’s also overlooked, we lost Niall Huggins in our very first game and he’s an important player for us in the first part of the season. We’ve not had Dennis Cirkin as well.
"We’ve lost Bradley Dack and Pat Roberts as well, we’ve lost four starters in my opinion. Naturally any squad in our league, when you have injuries like that, it’s going to impact the whole squad, certainly our squad with our players."
We Are Sunderland has taken a closer look at how the Black Cats have fared without Roberts since picking up his injury against Rotherham United and how Beale can look to address any issues.
With Patrick Roberts
To get a better reading of Roberts' impact for Sunderland in the final third, we've taken a look at his inclusion and performances leading up to his injury against Rotherham at the AESSEAL New York Stadium on December 29th.
Against Leeds United at home, then interim boss Mike Dodds switched things up to a 3-4-3 in possession, a 5-4-1 out of possession, with Alex Pritchard in a central role and Abdoullah Ba out on the right.
It was an evening to forget for the French youngster, who was largely ineffective in the hour he was on the pitch, with Patrick Roberts coming off the bench to replace the 20-year-old for the final half-an-hour of the game with the score level at 0-0.
A closer look at where Sunderland's dangerous attacks came from, only emphasise the impact Roberts, and Ba, have on the game in wider areas.
At Bristol City, the final game of Dodd's interim tenure, we saw a similar width with Roberts occupying the right-hand channel.
Sunderland set-up in the 4-2-3-1 shape we've become accustomed to so far this season, this time, Jack Clarke leading the line before moving out to the left-hand side as the game progressed.
Roberts came out on top in terms of expected goals for the Black Cats with an xG of 0.53, as per Wyscout, of their 1.80 xG for the afternoon. He completed 14 out of 18 dribbles against the Robins, carrying the ball forward into the final third, had six touches in the opponents penalty area, four shots, one of which was on target and a pass accuracy of 92 per cent completing 47 of 51 attempted passes.
Without Roberts
Sunderland were dealt the injury blow to Roberts over the festive period, forcing Beale into a change after just 15 minutes against the Millers. The calf injury he sustained will keep him out until after the January transfer deadline closes and potentially into next month.
It's difficult to say how much of an impact Roberts' injury had on that game in isolation, given it was a pretty poor outing against the Championship basement boys - a deflected Clarke strike ensuring a share of the spoils in a game where the Black Cats were dominant on the ball, but didn't create enough in the final third.
The xG of 0.35 the lowest of any visiting team to the New York Stadium this season and the first real sign of any alarm bells starting to ring.
Against Preston North End, Pritchard start out on the right-hand side, with Nazariy Rusyn leading the line. It was largely a positive first-half display from Beale's side, with an xG of 0.94 by half-time.
However, the 'Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde' display from the Black Cats in the second-half, only brought further questions. Sunderland didn't register a single effort on goal after Rusyn scored his first in a red and white shirt and the second of the afternoon - ending the match with an xG of 0.94
The Black Cats were dominant, even with the majority of their attacks coming down the left-hand side through Clarke.
Beale was posed the question whether it was part of his plan to step off Preston in preparation for their Wear-Tyne derby clash the following weekend, but kept his cards close to his chest.
"We weren’t great in the second half, I think that’s fair to say," Beale said. "First-half we had some passages of play that were excellent and second half I can see in their faces that they’re really tired, so we’ll give them that one.
"We didn’t start the half well. We struggled to get momentum and rhythm into some of our play and naturally the fans go a little bit flat off the back of what they’re seeing on the pitch. But the most important thing today was to get a home win and it’s a good home win against a Preston team that are fighting against us in and around the same positions.
"It was really important today and I don’t think we should look away from the effort we put into the first half to get 2-0 up. It wasn’t a game where we’ve dominated possession and missed chances, it was a game which was much more even and we took the chances that we got, so that’s a step in the right direction in terms of being more clinical and with four games in 10 days, with two travels, it’s not ideal.
"I’m not going to be somebody who moans because I know footballers like to play more than they train, but we’re now playing two games in the next 14 days so I don’t understand why one of these games couldn’t have been moved out, because I don’t think the second half was great viewing for anybody in the stadium or watching on TV. We’ve lost Bradley Dack this week and Patrick Roberts. Okay, we’re happy with the result, but I’m not sure why we had to have the four games in 10 days."
Again, something we touched on at We Are Sunderland which could have been in preparation for the FA Cup clash with their arch rivals.
The game with Newcastle United, was never a priority for Sunderland in terms of a result and progression through to the next round of the FA Cup, despite it meaning so much to supporters.
However, again we see Pritchard in a much narrower position.
Nonetheless, we didn't actually see Sunderland take advantage of Pritchard's runs inside, in turn it actually allowed Newcastle to have an out ball in Burn and counter down that side.
The Magpies' left-back wasn't drawn into following the Black Cats playmaker, keeping their defensive shape.
Pritchard's runs inside created an overload in midfield areas - forcing Martin Dubravka into a number of saves from central areas of the pitch.
However, that came at the expense of width on the right, which is why Sunderland recorded an xG of less than 0.01 from the right-hand side of the pitch.
Interestingly, at Ipswich Town, we saw Sunderland revert back to a 4-2-4 out of possession, which has been Beale's early Sunderland blueprint on the road.
The inclusion of Abdoullah Ba gave Sunderland more natural width, with paid dividends in an impressive opening 45 minutes. The Frenchman kept Leif Davis quiet at one end with his defensive work, but also provided that spark in the final third.
Here we see a more natural width at Portman Road through Ba.
Roberts' loss cannot be understated, but the Black Cats do have the players in their squad to maintain width on the pitch.
As for Hull City at home, that brings it's own level of scrutiny. Beale made the decision to restore Nazariy Rusyn to the starting line-up in place of Ba, with Pritchard 'out on the right' but drifting inside as he did against both Preston and Newcastle.
In the image we see below, Pritchard's average position way narrower than central midfielder Jobe (7).
But with Hull City fielding a depleted squad and young left-back Matty Jacob making just his third first-team appearance, it felt like an opportunity missed on the right-hand side of the pitch.
Jenson Seelt, was was steady away at right-back, but cut inside on too many occasions and didn't have the pace, or maybe confidence to beat his opposite number on the flank, with attacks breaking down.
That's not a slight on the young Dutch defender, who is clearly better suited to playing centre-half - Beale's hand forced somewhat in his team selection given injury to Aji Alese and Timothee Pembele lacking in game time.
Rusyn peels off to the left into space in behind Coyle, but Sunderland needed a forward run from Jobe to push Jacob back further. Instead, he drifts out wide to cover Seelt's run forward.
Sunderland needed to be less conservative and get someone 1vs1 with Jacob out on the flank to give the young full-back something to think about. By the time the ball is worked out to Seelt, Lokilo and Jacob are able to regroup and Hull have enough men behind the ball leaving the right-back with little to no options ahead of him.
Hull's left-back was a position the Black Cats should have targeted. Take the example below.
A couple of minutes before Hull City open the scoring, Pritchard is in a brilliant position to take advantage of the space left behind Jacob, as he goes to close the Jobe's shot down. However, the red and white midfielder opts to shoot, rather than set-up his team-mate in a better position.
Liam Rosenior pulled no punches at full-time, claiming that was his sides worst performance of the season.
"It's probably in terms of our football performance probably worst of the lot," he said at full time. "My job is to try and combine the two because if you can do that, you can have a really successful season in the Championship. It was really pleasing to grind out a game to do the basics."
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The lack of final product for Sunderland's strikers is emphasised by Rusyn having just 11 touches against the Tigers in 72 minutes of action. Substitute Luis Hemir Semedo managed nine having replaced the Ukrainian, Pritchard with 68 touches and Clarke with 77.
Compare that to Hull's front two - Ozan Tufan had 31 touches, while match winner Carvalho had 50 - the visitors were much more efficient than Sunderland at getting the ball into their two strikers. The substitution to bring Ba onto the pitch, along with Timothee Pembele, handed Beale's side more natural width on the right- something the game was crying out for, but was ultimately too late.
Whether it was part of the game plan or not, it's something we'll put to the Sunderland head coach at his press conference this week, but he needs to find a way to maintain that attacking balance on both sides of the pitch.
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