There can be no beating around the bush, it's been a disappointing campaign for Sunderland. Defeat to Watford was their 21st of the campaign and the seventh of Mike Dodds' interim tenure.
The interim head coach has taken nine points from a possible 36 available to him - a run of form that he knows is not good enough for a club of Sunderland's stature. For balance, it's worth taking the full picture into account.
The Black Cats have had their fair share of injury problems, suspensions and have played sides in the top-six. But to go from play-off contenders, to mid-table mediocrity having spent the second-half of the campaign looking over their shoulders, it's no surprise to see apathy set in with some sections of support at the Stadium of Light.
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That being said, there have been statistical signs of positivity even if results have not gone their way. The defeat to Watford a typical example of a side not making the most of their opportunities.
Talisman Jack Clarke had a number of opportunities, but the best fell to Chris Rigg, Trai Hume and Patrick Roberts. None of whom were able to level the scoring.
As we see from the trendline below, the first-half was a drab affair that burst into life when Adil Aouchiche rolled in Rigg on the right-hand side of the box, only for the youngster to drag his effort wide of the mark. It's missed opportunities like this that come back to bite you in the Championship.
When asked about those fine margins proving costly and his interim tenure as a whole, Dodds told We Are Sunderland: "I think people that just look at the green or red, I can understand why they'd do that. I think people within football would dive a little bit deeper. The conversations that I've had within football, I've had some positive chats with people from different parts of the football world that have been really impressed with what I've tried to do.
"When I reflect, we've had a really tough fixture list. Five of the game have been against teams in the top six. Obviously suspensions and injuries haven't completely helped. There's only been a couple of games that I've been really disappointed with.
"I sat and spoke with the staff to reflect. I think the first half of the Swansea game I was really disappointed with myself because I asked the players to do something they weren't quite ready to execute. Obviously the Blackburn game will stand out as one where I'll be disappointed. The QPR and Millwall game are probably two games where in possession, we could've done a bit more. I'm disappointed with the results.
"I'm really happy with the way I've managed the group. If you look at the games that I've taken, four or five of them are the youngest teams in EFL history, playing at Championship level. When I get time to reflect there'll be stuff I could have done better. Of course there is.
"But, there'll be a lot of things that I'm really proud of myself. As I've said, it's something that I want to do long-term. It's something that, although the results haven't been great, it's reaffirmed that I feel like I can do it. I haven't come off the side of the pitch and felt out of my depth. I haven't felt like something has happened in the game and I've thought 'What's going on here?'
"Whereas, in my first spell in charge, I'll be the first person to admit I was like a rabbit in the headlights. This is the third time I've taken over and I feel really confident in myself as a coach. People will point to the results and that's fine because it's a results based industry. I think when you delve into it, there's a lot of factors some people will take into consideration. Some people won't but that's the industry."
Scoring goals has been Sunderland's main issue this season, and it's worth pointing out some of the metrics behind the scenes. After Tony Mowbray's departure, the Black Cats xG nosedived using a five game rolling trendline, pictured above.
Sunderland not only struggled to score goals, but create opportunities under Michael Beale. His departure coming at one of the low points of the Black Cats campaign. Again, there can be no deflection from the Wearsiders' dismal run of form towards the end of the season - the seven game winless run saw them plummet down the table.
He may not have been able to pick up as many wins as he would like, but there are signs that Sunderland are turning the tide. The xG against Leeds United the first time that metric has ranked higher than xG Conceded since the win over Preston North End at the turn of the year.
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Reverting to a back five has certainly made Sunderland tougher to beat, with the Blackburn Rovers defeat the last time they conceded an xG of higher than 1.0. Bristol City's xG of 0.68 the highest since then.
Dodds' Sunderland side are now seeing their expected goals come in higher than their expected goals conceded - suggesting they've been unlucky in recent games. That being said, results are what any manager, head coach and team are judged upon, and they haven't been good enough this season.
A win over Sheffield Wednesday is a must if they want to ensure there's an ounce of positivity heading into next season. The platform is there, but they can't rely on luck.
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