Ipswich Town’s win over Coventry City to move them within touching distance of a return to the Premier League meant little to Sunderland in the great scheme of things. And yet there may still be some hope from the club’s hierarchy that Leeds United are able to do the unthinkable and find their way into the automatic promotion spot on the final day of the season.
Ipswich need just a point from their one remaining game at Portman Road against an all-but relegated Huddersfield Town to cap a remarkable couple of years and secure back-to-back promotions from League One up to the Premier League. If successful, they would become just the fifth team to do so in the Premier League era behind Watford, Manchester City, Norwich City and Southampton over a decade ago. It is by no mean feat what Kieran McKenna and his team are on the brink of achieving.
If Ipswich are to gain that second automatic promotion spot, as is now likely, they will join Leicester City back in the Premier League for the first time in over 20-years. But why would Sunderland, perhaps, be rooting for an upset on the final day of the season in favour of Leeds?
SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE: Win a pair of Black Cats Bar tickets for Sunderland's 2024/25 campaign
The answer is twofold; first and foremost, back-to-back promotions for Ipswich will put into context Sunderland’s achievements last year having followed their promotion from League One up with a sixth-placed finish in the Championship. The key reason, however, reverts to Sunderland’s philosophy in terms of the average age of their squad.
It’s no secret Sunderland posses the youngest squad in the EFL this season, having also fielded two of the three youngest ever starting XI’s in the competition this year, a title the club are proud to hold. But there needs to be an element of substance to their approach and evidence it can lead them to one of the top two steps in the Championship themselves in the future and fulfil the quest of the club to return to the Premier League.
Leicester, who were crowned champions with their recent 3-0 win over Preston North End, are ranked 13th in the division when it comes to the average age of their squad at 26.6-years-old, as per FBref. Ipswich, should they prevail on the final day, are ranked sixth in the Championship with the average age of their squad at 27.7-years-old. By contrast, Leeds, despite coming down from the Premier League last season, possess the second youngest squad in the division with an average age of 24.8-years-old – Sunderland with the youngest squad at 23.4 years of age.
Despite all the Premier League parachute finances as a discrepancy, should Leeds manage to overturn their three point deficit and go up, they will become the first team since the 2008-09 season to be promoted automatically with one of the two youngest squads in the division after Wolverhampton Wanderers won the title with an average age of 23.5 ahead of Birmingham City who, in contrast, had the oldest squad in the division at 27.9-years-old.
Over the last decade in the Championship, no team ranked youngest or second youngest in terms of their average age have won automatic promotion to the Premier League – Wolves, again, the closest when having the third youngest squad in 2017-18 at 24.7-years-old. In contrast, there have been three occasions within that timeframe where the clubs with the oldest, or second oldest, squad of players have earned automatic promotion; Sheffield United in 2018-19 when finishing second to Norwich with the second oldest squad at 27.6-years-old, Brighton & Hove Albion in 2016-17 when finishing second to Newcastle United with the oldest squad at 27.9-years-old and Burnley in 2015-16 when winning the league with the oldest squad in the division at 27.9 years of age.
To add to that, of the 20 teams promoted automatically in the last 10 years, excluding Leicester this season, dating back to the 2013-14 campaign, 13 of those teams have had a squad with an average age in the top 10 of the division. Sunderland, in their two seasons back in this division, have had the youngest squad by some margin in both years.
That’s not to say it can’t be done and not to say Sunderland can’t do it, having done so themselves under Mick McCarthy in 2004-05. The inaugural Championship season, following the restructuring of the Football League, saw Sunderland win the division with the second youngest squad at 24.8-years-old, behind only Crewe Alexandra. That, and the success of Wolves in 2009, remain the only examples in the Championship era of teams with one of the two youngest squads in the division to gain promotion automatically. The last time Sunderland won this division, under Roy Keane in 2006-07, they had the 11th youngest squad.
And it's not just in the Championship where the average squad age brings up an interesting algorithm. A glance towards the top of the Premier League shows an Arsenal team gunning for their first title in 20 years with the fourth youngest average age in the division at 25-years-old being chased down by the relentless Manchester City who are the eighth oldest in the league at 26.2-years-old.
Of all of Man City's triumphs over the last decade, not once have they possessed the youngest, or even the second youngest, squad in the Premier League. The youngest Man City team to win the Premier League was actually their first success in 2011-12 at 25.7-years-old where, still, it took until the 93rd minute of the final game of the season for Roberto Mancini's team to claim the title with Sergio Aguero's famous winner against Queens Park Rangers.
You have to go back to 2004-05 and Chelsea's title winning team during Jose Mourinho's first year in charge at Stamford Bridge for the last time the Premier League was won by a team with either the youngest or second youngest squad on average in the division at 25-years-old.
Liverpool icon Alan Hansen may never live down his old saying of 'you'll never win anything with kids' when analysing Manchester United's chances of success after their opening day defeat to Aston Villa in the 1995-96 season, but there remains a strong argument to that case in point.
Sir Alex Ferguson's team would go on to defy those comments when clinching the title with the youngest squad in the league at 25.1 years of age having been blessed with the supreme talent emerging through their ranks in Gary Neville (20), Paul Scholes (20), Ryan Giggs (21) and David Beckham (20), to name but a few, taking over the mantle from the likes of Mark Hughes, Paul Ince and Andrei Kanchelskis. In theory, that success of Ferguson in reshaping his United teams with the clubs own young talent remains a blueprint for clubs today - particularly Sunderland.
But regardless of whether Leeds are able to pull off a miracle on the final day to become only the third team in the Championship era with one of the two youngest squads to gain automatic promotion or not, it poses a significant question to Sunderland’s hierarchy as to whether they need to adjust their philosophy, given the stark reality of how infrequently teams with the youngest squads gain automatic promotion to the Premier League.
“The end goal for this football club is the Premier League, as I’m sure it probably is for a lot of other clubs who would pitch themselves at that top end of the table,” interim head coach Mike Dodds recently told We Are Sunderland.
“I think there’s a core of a really, really strong group. If you looked at a Dan Neil 12-months ago to a Dan Neil now, there’s huge progression there and in 12-months’ time there’ll be a different Dan Neil. For me, he is a potential Premier League centre-midfielder. If he stays at the club long enough, he’s a potential captain for the football club.
“Chris Rigg in 12-months’ time is going to look more refined and polished. You look at Jobe [Bellingham] who’s a second-year scholar – people forget he should be playing youth team football. The potential is unbelievable. Dan Ballard, I think, is one of the best centre-halves in the league, Trai Hume is one of the best right-back’s in the league.
“I’ve taken the team for a second time this season and I don’t want to keep going over old ground but the start I had in terms of the injuries I had, the fixtures I had and the suspensions I had was really difficult. But one thing I will say is the group stuck together and that’s really important. When we’ve got the bodies back that we needed the results have been better.
“Players are really important and good players, in particular for this football club, are really, really important. And one thing I’ve learned is that I can be as diligent as I want in the practices and as diligent as I want in terms of the preparation, but the players ultimately execute the plan. You’ve got to have good players on the pitch.
“Do we need to add a little bit more depth? I think that’s obvious; this period has shown that is something we need to do, but in terms of the core of the group I think we’re in a really good spot.
“I’m not going to say the players we’ve got aren’t good enough because I think they are, I just think a few of them need a little bit more help.”
Ipswich’s story, should they complete it, goes beyond that of just the average age of their squad, however. In 2021 the club were taken over by an American consortium who have gone about their business methodically since then in guiding the club back to the brink of the Premier League.
As Sunderland were basking in their Wembley glory in 2022, Ipswich had finished their League One campaign 11th in the table. McKenna’s first summer saw the beginning of the rebuild at Portman Road with the likes of Leif Davis, Marcus Harness, Dominic Ball, Freddie Ladapo, Massimo Luongo and Nathan Broadhead all brought in over the course of the next two transfer windows – some of whom remain key players this season – as they secured promotion back to the Championship.
Alex Tuanzebe, George Hirst and Jack Taylor were among the significant arrivals in the summer as Ipswich primed themselves for a tilt at the top six in the Championship. But where Sunderland, arguably, fell short last season when riding their promotion wave of momentum, Ipswich capitalised in the January transfer window. Mckenna had firmly established his team in the promotion race during the first half of the campaign, not too dissimilar to Sunderland who were fourth in the Championship heading into 2023.
Injury to Ross Stewart and the loan return of Ellis Simms were critical blows to Sunderland’s chances, particularly when they went unreplaced by the close of the window – Leeds’ Joe Gelhardt the only arrival suitable enough to operate up front in their absence despite being brought in as a No.10.
READ MORE:
-
Financial sustainability and bridging the gap to the Premier League: Can it be done?
-
Dan Neil is one of Sunderland's most valuable assets, so why is he underappreciated?
By contrast, Ipswich strengthened their hand in January with the arrivals of Ali Al-Hamadi from AFC Wimbledon, a player Sunderland had been linked with, Lewis Travis on loan from Blackburn Rovers, Jeremy Sarmiento on loan from Brighton and Kieffer Moore on loan from Bournemouth, another player Sunderland were heavily linked with. Al-Hamadi cost over £1million to bring in from League Two while there was a significant loan fee involved with recruiting Welsh international Moore from the Premier League.
Since January, Al-Hamadi has contributed with four goals, Sarmiento has provided three goals and one assist while Moore has added seven goals and one assist. Those eight goal contributions of Moore alone in just 17 appearances for Ipswich would have him third in Sunderland’s ranks this season when it comes to goals and assists, in less than half the appearances. The 14 goals scored by Ipswich’s attacking additions in January are 11 more than what Sunderland’s quartet of summer striking acquisitions of Mason Burstow, Nazariy Rusyn, Luis Hemir and Eliezer Mayenda have managed in an entire season.
“The No.9 position is very similar to all of the rest of them which is; you have three or four targets you try to prioritise and the forward area is always an area you want to try and strengthen in if you can,” sporting director Kristjaan Speakman said after Sunderland had failed to land Moore or any other centre-forward option in January.
“We went right down to the wire on three or four of them and at the end of it, it wasn’t to be for various reasons; availability and, ultimately, the choice. Sometimes finance can get drawn into it. You’ve always got a choice if you want to go and spend more and more, but there also comes a point where you have to evaluate that against the value and on this occasion that didn’t come through for us.
“It’s not something we’re sitting around in huge frustration about. We’re really happy we improved the forward line with Romaine [Mundle] joining us and, ultimately, we’ve got three players in the building who we believe in and they need to step up and perform.
“For the vast majority of the season, creating chances has not been a major issue for us. For the vast period of time we’ve been right up there in terms of the xG and all the various stats you want to look at. It’s been about converting those opportunities.
“I think there’s a lot of talk around No.9’s and if you look into the stats and the detail there’s a lot more goals coming from different parts of the pitch in almost every team in this league and other leagues. We’re aware of that. But, ultimately, we need a team that’s functioning, we need different goalscorers from different parts of the pitch and you need two or three players to score some good numbers and hopefully that’s what we can start to build on in the latter part of the season.”
Unfortunately for Sunderland, that hasn’t worked out. The experience and goals contributed by Moore are set to help Ipswich land the golden ticket back to the riches of the Premier League and provide justification to their approach over the course of the last two years since Sunderland left them behind in League One.
For Sunderland, as admirable as their model is, with its potential financial windfall in the selling of assets and producing youthful, vibrant players, they have fallen well short. As the 2023-24 campaign draws to a close, results on the final day of the season could see Sunderland finish 40 points, and possibly as many goals, adrift of Ipswich and a league apart come the start of next season. The ability to adapt, for Sunderland, is going to be key.
Read the rules here